Reinke Faces Life

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let_it_ride

http://wizardofodds.com/letitride

Assuming that you know the game, (if not read the two cited webpages, play it a few times, and come back), here’s my current money management strategy at LIR.

All my money management strategies at gambling are focused on (1) minimizing losses; (2) capturing winnings; and (3) letting good luck play itself out.

(If you breezed by my three points, then please return and consider them carefully. I’ve paid a lot of “tuition” for that meme.)

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SETUP

Assume one is at a 10$ table, with the standard three circles, a 1$ bonus, and a 5$ side bet.

Back in my area, I align three general areas: the wall, the last bet, and the bank.

My initial bet is: 1$ for the bonus, 5$ for the side bet, and 3 stacks of 10$ for a total of $36.

The wall is composed of four stacks of replacements for routine play. They are each: 1$ for the bonus, 5$ for the side bet, and 10$ for the circle. That’s a stack total of $16. Four times that is 64$.

My final bet area is for my last bet. (Then, I say bye! And count my losses. Or more rarely, my winnings.) That final bet is: 1$ for the bonus, 5$ for the side bet, and 3 stacks of 20$ for a total of $66.

(So, with two exceptions, my maximum loss is $36+64+66=166. If I want to risk more, I add stacks to the wall in increments of $16.)

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Operation

I play hands as does any other player. I lose mostly, but some times I win. Losing I just repopulate the betting area from my wall. Winning, I rebuild the wall. When the wall is gone, it’s time for the final (double) bet. If I lose I quit. Any time I win, I just rebuild the wall. If at anytime the wall is FULL, then all the remaining chips won move to the bank. If I can’t rebuild a whole stack from winnings, the change sits by the wall for dollar bonus bets or to combine with another small win to build a stack.

Wins on the bonus or the side bet go directly to the bank.

With one minor and one major exception, money only flows INTO the bank. Never out of it.

(This prevents the all too often seen phenom of playing all your winnings back to the house. That’s why I detest — what I call — the muck strategy of money management — where players keep all their chips neatly stacked in front of them. Add their winnings and quit when they have no more chips to play. Argh!)

The minor exception is sometimes that dollar bonus will draw out a five out of the bank to top off winnings on the wall. In general, that doesn’t happen to often.

The major exception is low pairs. I will LIR on the first circle with a low pair, possible straight flush, or possible royal flush.

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Explanation

When I play LIR, the top three values can’t be won with all three stacks without taking some extra risk. The low pair is the common problem. If you are dealt a low pair in your three cards, what do you do? If you pull back your first circle bet, then you can never get paid for three circles if you have four of a kind where you have a low pair and the dealer has the matching low pair. Granted not a high probability, but it happens more often then you think. (I’ve caught it four times in my playing time.) Clearly if you have winning high pair or trips, there’s no decision. It’s that pesky low pair, for which I make a major exception. I WILL take chips from the bank to play the low pair. Similarly, for a three card potential straight flush or royal flush, I will do the same thing. But, I can only think of that happening once.

I pay to play that low pair out of the bank when I lose so that I don’t get cold feet and / or play a hunch.

Also notice, I NEVER chase a straight, flush or three money cards with that first circle like many players do. I also don’t guess or play hunches. (I’m a notoriously bad guesser.) I usually don’t chase them with the second circle either!

When the deal turns his first card, if it doesn’t give my low pair trips, then I pull the second circle bet. (If the dealer has the answer to my prayers — my matching pair, the first turned card must give me trips. Then, I LIR the second circle and the only question is if I get the fourth one. Notice my trips will be paid with three circles; not the usual two that other players get.) Similarly, if I am chasing a straight flush or a royal flush, the dealer’s first turned car must help for me to LIR the second circle. I don’t get that happening often.

Lest, it seem all glum. I have caught trips several times on the second dealer card. Or had the dealer pair his two cards but not match my pair. The payoff for two circles by two pair gives a nice payback for all the bad chases.

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Conclusion

I play to win big, lose little, and never give anything back. I chase low pairs but not much else. I use the bank to prevent giving back my winnings.

Questions?

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On the trip, I read a political thriller “Act of Treason” by Vince Flynn. It held my attention for the trip. So that per se is an endorsement. I was surprised to find a typo — yes me the “spel lik injineer” guy finding typos. I guess because it had a computing crypto component, I was reading carefully. Here it is.

Page 435!

“It’s near real time not absolute neat time”

The line should have been “absolute REAL time”.

I was pretty pleased with myself.

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I am just coming off a week of enforced “radio silence”. It felt strange. Like I had lost a large part of my mind. I had many interesting things happening and no place to record them. A pad of yellow paper is no substitute for a keyboard and this podium. Over the coming week as work, time, and attention permit, I’ll try to transcribe the ramblings of the “crazy man” in the electronic isolation booth.

An electronic version of a “sensory deprivation” tank?

I have eleven pages of notes. I’m not sure that all of it will make it to the keyboard. A whine looses something after it ages. Also, not being “in the moment” means the subtle details are lost. The mind plays funny tricks with what it chooses to remember. It’s probably the Intelligent Designer’s gift to us that failures are forgotten and successes are remembers.

I’m in the process of doing my after action “lessons learned”. And, boy, do I have a lot of “learning” from this trip to do!!

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http://www.smartmoney.com/invisiblehand/index.cfm?story=20070912&hpadref=1&pgnum=2

The Invisible Hand
Retired Doctor Devises Plan to Cure Health Care
By Igor Greenwald |Igor Greenwald Archive |Published: September 12, 2007

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Fogoros serves up something like a layer cake: at the bottom, a sizable self-financed health savings account (with the government subsidizing the contribution on a sliding scale for the poor). Any money that’s not used up could be saved toward retirement or allocated toward optional insurance.

Those who’ve exhausted their health account would be entitled to a share of the rationed health-care pool. Treatments would be covered or not based on a cost-benefit analysis treating each human being as equally valuable but seeking to equalize the opportunities for a healthy life over time. So a quadriplegic’s life would be deemed no less valuable than anyone else’s, but at the same time young patients would get some preference over the old who’ve already lived it up. Patients with greater odds of being helped would also gain priority. This sounds like common sense, even if it’s common sense we would prefer not to exercise at the moment.

Beyond rationed care, the rich would remain free to bankroll the many fanciful treatment alternatives, doubling as guinea pigs for the rationed system that would look to adopt the most cost-effective advances. Fogoros understands that the public debates about what to pay for could get quite awkward, and the system, any system, can and will be gamed. But he’s right to argue that this will still improve on the mess we’ve got.

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At the very least, it would seem that we could end the distortion from the WW2 Wage and Price controls. At that time, since wages were frozen, businesses were allowed to give “benefits” that didn’t count towards the “controls”. That’s where we got into the whole insurance mess. We allowed the gooferment to put us into a meme that allows businesses to deduct healthcare expense but individuals are not. At the very least, we should level the playing field. My preference would be to get the businesses out of involvement with my healthcare. Having been in my own business, I was allowed to deduct my healthcare insurance cost. Love it. I think when the marketplace “figures it out”, we will become a nation of contractors. Cheaper for businesses and better for individuals.

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http://www.impactlab.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=13031

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Katie McGuire of the American Red Cross said the growing list of restrictions has created extra challenges in recruiting volunteers. This summer, the organization raffled American Idol concert tickets and collaborated with sports teams in attempts to attract younger donors, particularly as usually avid baby-boomer donors slip into poor health.

***End Quote***

Ahh, like my prior discussions of “spare parts”, it seems “sinful” to not give the gift of life.

Perhaps, the American Red Cross could think of ways to make it “fun” and appeal to everyone’s innate pride and generosity. It would be nice if it was easy to keep score. In my time on the planet, I know I’ve given more than gallon. I always tell my favorite college story of the good Brother who encouraged me to give blood for the first time with the exhortation, “you’re probably not too stupid to bleed right”. I would say “don’t take your spare parts with you”. I carry and organ donation card and have told Frau Reinke and anyone who would listen that “spare parts” should be recycled. My only concern with all methods of remains disposal is that we get the spare parts that others may need to them.

Like giving blood, there is no simpler act of kindness to another human being that to donate.

Now it is true, I’d like to see a free market in body parts, fluids, and everything. But that’s the Libertarian in me, trying to address the shortage of organs for transplants. I know that if there was a marketplace, then we would have ZERO shortages. The market would always clear. Paying money to bury or burn a perfectly useful object, to me, seems to be the height of selfishness. It can’t be used by its owner anymore, it has no substitute, and it’s going to spoil. So fill out your organ donation card and give blood. I assure you it won’t hurt a bit. Alright maybe a little bit, but you’re an adult. And they’ll give you a lollypop. And Kool sticker to wear.

And when you run in to that good Brother at Saint Peter’s check in desk, (he’ll be on staff there because he was great at recording all the minuses and the occasional rare plus), you can tell him that you weren’t too stupid to “bleed” or “donate an organ” before you left.

And if you don’t believe the heaven / hell myths, how about “karma”?

And if you believe in nothing, what if you’re wrong? Even BlackJack players sometimes take out insurance.

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