September 11th, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Technology will replace 80% of doctors: Vinod Khosla
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Health care must be more data driven and about wellness, not sick care.
Eighty percent of doctors could be replaced by machines.
Khosla assured the audience that being part of the health care system was a burden and disadvantage. To disrupt health care, entrepreneurs do not need to be part of the system or status quo. He cited the example of CEO Jack Dorsey of Square (a wireless payment system allowing anyone to accept credit cards rather than setup a more costly corporate account with Visa / MasterCard) who reflected in a Wired magazine article that the ability to disrupt the electronic payment system which had stymied others for years was because of the 250 employees at Square, only 5 ever worked in that industry.
hosla believed that patients would be better off getting diagnosed by a machine than by doctors. Creating such a system was a simple problem to solve. Google’s development of a driverless smart car was “two orders of magnitude more complex” than providing the right diagnosis. A good machine learning system not only would be cheaper, more accurate and objective, but also effectively replace 80 percent of doctors simply by being better than the average doctor. To do so, the level of machine expertise would need to be in the 80th percentile of doctors’ expertise.
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Can we do better in being more reliable, consistent, and creating a system process and design that is comparable to highly reliable organizations and industries? Of course. Can we be more systematic and doing the right things every patient every time on areas where the science is known to level of the molecule? Yes. Care must be incredibly simple to access, extremely convenient and intensely personal.
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Well, I am not a fan of America’s current “health care” system. Unless you’re trying to change it to the “socialized medicine” system found in the UK, Canada, and Europe.
I want improvement; not a retro grade or down grade to something worse.
And, of course, I think to the way to that is with less Gooferment and more liberty freedom.
After watching Deep Blue play Jeopardy, it’s seems possible. Doctor House could be a less smelly less crazy diagnostician. I’d have gladly liked my wife’s case presented to Doctor Deep Blue. It couldn’t have had a worse outcome.
Then look at all the regulation and costs imposed by that regulation.
The FDA, Medicare / Medicaid, Doctor licensing, Nurse Licensing, Pharmacist Licensing, Pharmacy regulation, Hospital regulation, Insurance regulation, State regulation, Federal regulation, financial regulation, tax code manipulation, Medical education regulation, anti-trust legislation that allows the AMA a monopoly, …
Did I miss any?
How do we get out of this mess?
Let people make mistakes. Shade tree mechanics. Turn it over to WalMart.
Medicine should be patient driven.
Look at pet care. Competitive. “Cheap”. Easily found. No forms. No real regulation.
Imagine if a Nurse could have her own “practice”. Finding sick people and getting them to the doctor or hospital. Physician’s assistants would be an extension of the system. Everyone says early detection is crucial to good outcomes. Everyone says that rapid care is essential to good outcomes. Everyone says that over use of the ER is driving up costs and wait times.
Yada, yada, yada …
It could be so much better.
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