POLITICAL: Ron Paul’s path to victory

http://www.kcci.com/news/27407884/detail.html?taf=des

Rand Paul’s Iowa Visit Shows New Political Climate – Des Moines News Story – KCCI Des Moines

Message from Scott: “Paul/Paul Ticket? Who would be at the top of the ticket- father or son?”

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Dear Scott,

I hope we don’t get a p/p ticket. It takes out 2 for 1. And the old man has enough “no” votes to be credible. I CAN see how he can win: the “ross perot” phenom.

Everyone forgets that ½ the electorate doesn’t vote. Some of them are not even registered. Watch, if Old Man Paul runs, for a wave of new voter registrations.

Of registered voters, ½ don’t vote. Of the remaining half (i.e., 50%), it splits 15 D’s – 10 R’s – 25 I’s. That’s the current calculus. The D candidate and the R candidate seek to rally their base to come out and fight over the independents.

In the Raegan election, (I believe from memory) 5% of the D’s, 25% of the I’s, and all 10% of the R’s voted for him. And, that was after, Ross Perot self-destructed his campaign. The tin foil hats believe that he was not a serious candidate; just some one the D’s put up to split the vote. Perot, like Bloomberg and others, was a life long died in the wool D, who magically became a “not D”. To quote Shawshank Redemption warden, “Lordy it is a miracle!” In the Perot election, Perot pulled some of the D’s, some of the R’s, and some of the I’s. Enough to get Clinton elected.

The great professional political politician’s fear is the “great unwashed coming to vote”. Remember there is 50% that register but never vote. Motivating half that mob to come out is a tsunami. That half is 25%! It would be overwhelming. And, if one assumes that if half of the “unwashed” comes out, then the 15-10-25 calculus is in the toilet. Something big is happening.

The candidate, who can tap into that groundswell of pissed off voters, will “surf” to an easy victory.

That’s why the Tea Parties are significant to the professional politicians and bureaucrats. It represents the “great unwashed”. That’s the tea leaves to watch.

Ron Paul could surf that wave to the White House. And, imho, save America from its fate.

We can only hope!

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At this point, I say a Ron Paul / Michelle Bachman ticket would be a strong entry into the race. The addition of a woman to the VP slot is almost mandatory!

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