RANT: My market outlook; catch that falling knife?


* AUGUST 21, 2010

Rethinking Gold: What if It Isn’t a Commodity After All?

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For investors convinced U.S. lawmakers and central bankers will successfully manage the budgetary woes and the massive unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare, then gold is overvalued in the long term. Righting America’s national balance sheet would explicitly raise the dollar’s value as investors with money abroad move assets into a more-sound American economy. The selling of euro, yen and pounds would push the dollar higher—and gold lower.

If, however, you worry the U.S. balance sheet is irreparably damaged, then gold currently reflects the likelihood that a weak-dollar trend still has years to run as the U.S. struggles with its financial mess. Investors—and consumers—looking to preserve their purchasing power will gravitate toward gold, since its quantity isn’t easily manipulated.

Invest in gold, then, according your beliefs about the future of the greenback. Just don’t invest based on the idea that gold is a proxy for inflation. You are likely to be played for a fool.

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Yeah, trust that politicians and bureaucrats can put us back on the right track? And, the tooth fairy will leave “We, The People” a few trillion dollars under our pillow tonight.

No, this is going to get very ugly.

Just watch the politicians and bureaucrats get gold plated pensions and lifetime healthcare, and see that the serfs get? Obamacare and the proverbial iceberg for old people. Sarah was right about “death panels”. When the livestock is uneconomic what do you do with it? Off to the slaughter hose called healthcare. The State needs the young vigorous workers. The soldiers for its endless wars. Dumbed down by Gooferment education so they won’t object to being led by the elite. (Where do politicians send their children to school?)

At the first hint that the 2010 elections are not going to sweep the D’s out, the market will tank as EVERYONE, including me, tries to hit the exits.

Even if we dodge that bullet, at the first hint that the then Lame Duck is going to do bad things, again the “eject button” gets hit.

And, even if we dodge those two, at the first hint that the New “Tea Party” driven Congress is not going to: defund Obamacare, roll back spending in a big way, and reduce taxation / regulation on small businesses. Again, hit the “eject me from this market” button. Where that wealth goes is problematical: gold, overseas, into real assets like farmland?

And even if we dodge that, at the first hint that BHO44 isn’t a one termer, exit stage left. Wealth will again leave the playing field before it gets stolen. Better to bury your gold coins in your back yard than let your IRA be stolen for an “enhanced Social Security benefit”.

For your own good of course, the stock market is too risky. Never let a good crisis go to waste. The returns on your wealth that was stolen under the guise of Social Security Insurance are so superb; throw your IRA and 401K on the same bonfire.

Argh! Not looking too good for the future generations.

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