>1. First article…. lol
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Frank Scoblete: The simple truth about trend betting The simple truth about trend betting Scoblete says trend betting does not work in random games. You can’t get an edge over the house by betting for or against the trends you just saw. What happened in the past has no influence on what happens in the future.
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He’s right, BUT, (and there is always a BIG butt), he doesn’t address the paradigm (the perception) that human beings always see order out of chaos. So we see trends. If UGH the caveman didn’t he was some predator’s lunch. Look at those people who say the Devil’s face in the billowing clouds at the 9/11 attack. Our wetware is hard wired to see <synonym for excrement> that may or may not be there. And the trend is your friend.
So, it’s a meme that if you’re gambling, you can’t “beat the house”. That’s why we do money management.
And, when you find an advantage, like I did when I realized the Riviera’s new loyalty ticket machines gave a slot player a small amount of additional information about the history of the machine (i.e., on a three dollar slot, a loyalty reading of 1 or 2 to go on a machine where the last play was 1 or 2 dollars MEANT that the last player went broke. Did it always pay to play that machine? No, but I’d give it two spins $6 to hit. One of the few times I made a lot of money. I’d have to call Our Girl to come down and wait for the tax papers.
Argh! I was at Comdex and had to go back to work. I got back out there three weeks later and the system had been removed.
I bet the pros realized it and used it. The casino probably lost the pro’s action because the pros would wait patiently for the tourists to “prime the pump”. Casino mistakes are few and far between. Like the Fremont’s repeat roulette number bet.
But he’s right. Betting on an RNG trend is the path to poverty. I’ll still do it in the short run (i.e., jump in the grave).
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