TINFOILHAT: an email exchange about Conspiracy Theories and my Taxonomy and Ruler

On Sat, Aug 20, 2022 at 10:26 AM {REDACTED} wrote:


As a matter of curiosity, FJohn, have you kept a count over the years of how many predictions by conspiracy “exposers” have ever actually turned out to be accurate? On a percentage basis, maybe? 


“…le philosophe n’a jamais tué de prêtres et le prêtre a tué beaucoup de philosophes…”
                                        ― Denis Diderot

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No, I haven’t.  But, it is IMHO surprisingly high.  For example, I blog under the heading of “tin foil hat” all the ones I hear about.  For example, TWA flight 800 was probably shot down by a Navy frigate by accident.  It was covered up by the Navy and the various Gooferment agencies.  Of course, it was dismissed as “yet another conspiracy theory”.  Just recently, after some number of years, credible testimony comes out that it was the Navy.  Now, of course, no one will formally admit that it was.  I guess too many lawsuits by the families and all the “tin foil hats” that were intimidated and disparaged.  Here’s a screen shot of the many blog postings I ranted about. 

Now granted that is just one example, but there are many many others.  That’s why a lot (half?) the country doesn’t believe the Gooferment, politicians,  bureaucrats, the media, or “celebrities’.  “I wouldn’t believe you, if your tongue came notarized.” … attributed to Judge Marilyn Milian, but may have an earlier history. 

Sorry, but I’ve been red pilled for a while.  For me, it started with the JFK assassination.  I was never a “gun nut” but was always interested in them.  When I heard what Oswald allegedly used as a rife, the distance, and angle, I began to suspect that this whole store was “barbara streisand” (i.e., BS; bull <synonym for excrement>).  I also took note of a Dorthy Killgalan’s murder; she was hot on the trail of the story of JFK’s assasination.

If you think it would be “interesting” or useful, I could begin to create an itemized list.  I did start to develop a taxonomy or scale for a Conspiracy Theory meter.  So, for example, I’d categorize TWA 800 as “Governmental (Conspiracy Theory)” and set the dial from “plausible” to “more likely than not”.  I’m just waiting for the chance to move it to “proven” when the Gooferment formally admits its actions. 

Maybe if DJT45 becomes DJT47, it could happen.  But I’m not holding my breath. 

This is probably more than you wanted to know, but I’ll make a good blog post.
Laugh!Crazy Old Ferd

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Screen Shot 2022 08 20 at 11 00 23 AM

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The terms “red pill” and “blue pill” refer to a choice between the willingness to learn a potentially unsettling or life-changing truth by taking the red pill or remaining in contented ignorance with the blue pill. The terms refer to a scene in the 1999 film The Matrix.

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Clearly, like all “good” Conspiracy Theories, it has some plausibility.  Money, motive, opportunity … …. and best of all it has “that’s just crazy” defense.  

I’ll have to dig out my “conspiracy theory” ruler to measure how to label this.

Remember my 2010 taxonomy on conspiracy theory: (1) Government; (2) Political; (3) Historical; and (4) Miscellaneous. S0 I may have to add a “Commercial” category. Can’t find my conspiracy theory ruler.  Guess I’ll have to reinvent it. Argh!  The scale would go from “Generally Accepted As True” all the way to “Generally Accepted As False” with “tab stops” at “unlikely”, “plausible”, “possible”, “less likely than not”, “more likely than not”.  

I welcome input on my scale.For this one, I’d assign it a label of “plausible”.  I take no opinions but would like to see evidence (i.e., a Pfizer email; a check to the parties involved).  Rumors and innuendo can move it on the scale.

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Conspiracy Theory Taxonomy and Ruler

* Governmental
* Political
* Historical
* Commercial
* Miscellaneous

Conspiracy Theory Taxonomy Ruler

1. Generally Accepted As True
2. Unlikely
3. Plausible
4. Possible
5. More likely than not
6. Less likely than not
7. Generally Accepted As False

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