ECONOMICS: Four reasons for a dim employment forecast

Men Without Work
Over the weekend, the FT published my review of Nicholas Eberstadt’s important new book Men Without Work.  

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I think this is likely a substantial underestimate unless something is done for a number of reasons.  First everything we hear and see regarding technology suggests the rate of job destruction will pick up.  Think of the elimination of drivers, and of those who work behind cash registers.  Second, the gains in average education and health of the workforce over the last 50 years are unlikely to be repeated.  Third, to the extent that non-work is contagious, it is likely to grow exponentially rather than at a linear rate.  Fourth, declining marriage rates are likely to raise rates of labor force withdrawal given that non-work is much more common for unmarried than married men.

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This is a really dismal view of what’s in store for the men of the future.

As well as for the uneducated, or those who can not generate value.


Everyone better be teaching their children to be entrepreneurial.


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