MONEY: Financial planning with old memes

Sunday, October 21, 2012

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-coming-retiree-crisis-2012-10

Take Action Now To Prepare For The Great Retiree Crisis

Jeff Voudrie, See It Market | Oct. 10, 2012, 8:30 AM

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The financial planning community has largely relied on assumptions regarding equity, debt and inflation percentages that have been experienced over the last 30 years.

There are 3 problems with these assumptions:

Equity returns the last 30 years have been extraordinarily high as a result of the longest and greatest Bull market in the history of U.S. stock markets. Accordingly, many financial plans used projections that assumed equity returns of 8-10% a year.

Debt returns over the same period are equally skewed. Remember the double-digit interest rates of the 1980’s? In 1989, as a young broker, I was selling 30-year TVA bonds yielding 10%! Financial plans the last 5-10 years have used interest rate assumptions around 5-6% a year.

The scenarios that led to the historic markets the last 30 years are very unlikely to EVER be repeated in today’s retiree’s lifetime. And those who are taking distributions based on these outdated assumptions may soon run out of money.

For instance, let’s assume that someone retired 5 years ago at age 60 with a $500,000 investment portfolio. Based on financial plans popular at that time, the retiree is taking $2500 a month in distributions—money they need to maintain their current standard of living. Since the plan anticipated the ability to average a 7% return on a portfolio with close to 50% in equities, the retiree expects to be able to take those distributions and never run out of money.

Adjusting those assumptions based on what many believe resembles more reasonable assumptions going forward requires decreasing the rate of return assumption for a similar-risk portfolio to around 4% and increasing the inflation assumption from 1-2% a year to 3-4% a year (which may still be too conservative). Suddenly, the portfolio that should last forever is now projected to be exhausted in only 16.8 years! That means that the entire nest egg and what it earns cannot sustain the current withdrawal rate. Since the retiree started the withdrawals five years ago, now they are down to 11.8 years—running out of money around age 76!

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Clearly, the political class has screwed up the American economy.

Pity the poor, the elderly, the middle class, those on fixed income.

Inflation is grossly understated by the “official” stats.

Are we headed to be like Europe or pre-WW2 Germany?

Clearly, everyone needs to update their financial plans.

I’ve recommended to my turkeys that they adjust their “money reserve requirements”.

Everyone better plan to work for a longer time.

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MONEY: PT is less than AU?

Thursday, October 18, 2012

KITCO Metals quotes

 

 

Take a look at the price of platinum versus gold.

What does this signal?

Price manipulation in the commodities markets in advance of the election?

Wonder when we’ll hear about the derivative contracts that are used to move the market.

Argh!

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FUN: Luddite submits a “gas” joke!

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Every once in a while, Luddite comes up with a good one!!!

LUDDITE GAS PRICES

 

Yeah, and there’s no inflation!

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MONEY: How can anyone not count food and gas in the CPI?

Sunday, February 12, 2012

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2012/02/05/hows-that-change-working-out-for-you

How’s that “change” working out for you?
Sunday, February 5th, 2012
Posted by Ed Mattson

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These government “number slingers” are the same bunch that tells you the Consumer Price Index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment to end 2011. Let’s see… 3% inflation. Do you really believe that? Have you been shopping lately? Have you purchased gasoline or diesel for your vehicle so you could go to work (if you still have a job)? Oh, that’s right.  THEY DON’T COUNT GAS AND FOOD IN THE INFLATION RATE!  I guess we don’t need food or gasoline.

In most families the women do most of the grocery shopping right? Men usually aren’t always up to current grocery store prices. Next time anyone talks about politics and how things are going, just ask them if they have purchased ten pounds of potatoes this past year, or stopped in at a gas station.  In 2009, 10 lbs of potatoes cost about $3.50 in Western Michigan (about $3.00 at Wal-Mart). Today the cost is over $5 any place you want to shop. Gas was $1.79/gal when Obama’s entourage slithered into Washington and today, down at the local discount gas station here in North Carolina, it’s $3.59. Is it any wonder they DON’T CALCULATE FOOD AND GAS INTO THE CPI?

*** end quote ***

Excellent point. If they did then they’d have to give a COLA to all the old folks.

It’s like the scam with ZERO interest rates by the FED. That keeps Uncle Sam’s 15T$ debt as a near zero expense.

When do “We, The Sheeple” wake up?

When does the World wake up?

You’ll know the scam is over when we have to pay for oil in gold or someone else’s national currency.

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MONEY: Confiscation Through Inflation

Thursday, February 2, 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DObOzOMhXvE&feature=colike

Confiscation Through Inflation

Uploaded by DollarDazeDotOrg on Dec 8, 2010

Through continual issuance of the currency, the U.S. dollar has depreciated in value when compared to gold.

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Spot on!

It gets even worse when you consider the debt being run up. It can never be repaid.

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MONEY: No meaningful way to save

Sunday, January 29, 2012

http://www.forbes.com/sites/charleskadlec/2012/01/23/gingrich-the-gold-standard-and-the-florida-primary

ForbesOp/Ed|1/23/2012 @ 4:33PM
Gingrich, The Gold Standard, And The Florida Primary Charles Kadlec, Contributor

*** begin quote ***

There is no meaningful way to save for your retirement, for your children’s education, or for the future if you don’t know what the dollar will be worth when you will need to spend it.  That makes us insecure and more dependent on government.  Sound money — a dollar that can buy the same amount 10, 20 or 30 years from now — increases our ability to take care of ourselves, our families and to be far less dependent on government.  That goes to the heart of our ability to live in liberty.

The gold standard also reinforces the constitutional limits on the power of the federal government.  When the dollar is linked to gold, the Federal Reserve cannot finance federal government deficits by printing excessive amounts of money.  If it were to try to do so, holders of dollars could over-rule the Fed by turning in the extra dollars for gold, forcing the Fed to reverse its policies.  Except in times of war, the Federal budget deficits were tiny.  From 1947 to 1967, they averaged just 0.1% a year.  In today’s economy, that would be the equivalent of $15 billion.

Finally, making the dollar as good as gold, and restoring gold to the center of the international monetary system, will give the Unites States an enormous boost in soft power.  According to a recent study by the Bank of England, when compared to even the flawed, post World War II gold standard, the paper dollar standard has been a disaster whose true dimensions have been disguised by the time over which it has been inflicted on people all over the world.   Since 1971, real per capital growth rates have been cut by 1 percentage point a year, even as world inflation increased 1.5 percentage points to average 4.8% per year.  Meanwhile, the frequency and severity of economic downturns have increased, as have the number of banking crises.

*** end quote ***

As far as I know, Gingrich doesn’t support a Gold Standard; only Ron Paul wants to start the process. And, it would have to be a process. A complete process of unwinding the “Era of Big Government”.

There’s a TV commercial on about the old couple at the bank being congratulated about their retirement. The teller is counting out blank pieces of paper. How true is that? In my mind, very.

Social Security was sold to “We, The Sheeple” as “insurance”. Unlike real “insurance”, the politicians and bureaucrats took the “contributions” and spent them on the welfare / warfare state. And, put IOUs in the “lockbox”. What a joke! A fraud. At least Ponzi didn’t force people to participate. If MetLife did what the Gooferment did, all the executives would be jail. The politicians and bureaucrats collect a big Gooferment pension for <synonym for the act of procreation in real time> us.

And, Social Security was never supposed to be taxable. And, inflation adjusted. Until the Gooferment decided that energy and food shouldn’t count towards inflation. Right!

And, good luck saving on your own for your retirement. The FED, to hold down the Gooferment’s borrowing costs, has by diktat keeps interest rates at zero. Or pretty close to it.

401Ks and IRA were introduced to induce savings for retirement and take pressure off Social Security. Since “it was never intended to entirely fund a person’s retirement”. That would surprise “We, The Sheeple” circa 1935.

But then a lot would surprise them!

So, perhaps, youngsters might be better off saving for their retirement in gold or silver bullion coins.

Remember that in ancient Rome two gold coins would buy a fine man’s outfit. Pretty much the same today.

Remember that in 1964, three silver dimes would but a gallon of gas. I can PERSONALLY attest to that. And, they cleaned your window, gave you a free class, and trading stamps. Today, those three silver dimes would be worth about SIX DOLLARS; enough for almost TWO gallons of gas.

So, what has changed?

The dollar!

So returning to that old couple at the bank with a lifetime of paper savings. They’ve been defrauded by society. Hard to imagine, but visualize if they’d put those savings into gold bullion coins that they kept in a kitchen pot. Each week, instead of “saving” with paper, they put some gold or silver away in that pot. Hard to imagine that they would nt be better off.

Finally, returning to Gingrich, I agree he could ignite a fire of reality. But, that’s not going to happen. Because at the end of the road, these guys are all suits who want to control people.

Vote Ron Paul. A return to sanity begines with a single step.

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LIBERTY: Gooferment fails to protect property rights

Friday, January 27, 2012

http://lewrockwell.com/napolitano/napolitano37.1.html

How Much Economic Freedom Do We Have in the United States?
by Andrew P. Napolitano

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The root of economic freedom is the recognition of the right to own private property. That includes the right to utilize it unmolested, to dispose of it without anyone’s permission and to exclude anyone from it, even the government. Suffice it to say, no American president since the advent of the income tax and the Federal Reserve 100 years ago has fully accepted or meaningfully defended that right. The more the government extracts in taxes and the more it inflates the money supply, the more it rejects and assaults property rights.

*** and ***

There is not a single example in human history of central economic planning producing more prosperity than a free market. The framers understood that. That’s why they wrote a Constitution that prohibited an income tax, forbade the states from interfering with contracts, and prevented the feds from taking life, liberty or property without due process. All those constitutional prohibitions have been nullified by amendment or disregarded by consensus.

*** end quote ***

From the diktats (i.e., what the politicians call “laws” and “regulations”) that deprive folks of their property, to the taxes and inflation to just steal their wealth, we have no property rights.

In New Jersey, the real estate property tax mostly to support the Gooferment Skrules turns owners into defacto “renters.

How can you think we are free?

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