RANT: ‘Deflategate’ is hot air. Fuhgeddaboudit!

https://consortiumnews.com/2015/05/07/holes-in-nfls-deflategate-report/

Holes in NFL’s ‘Deflategate’ Report
May 7, 2015

Exclusive: A high-profile NFL probe into the champion New England Patriots concluded that “it is more probable than not” that quarterback Tom Brady’s footballs were intentionally deflated prior to a January playoff game, but the report sloughs off scientific evidence that undercuts the finding, writes Robert Parry.

By Robert Parry

*** begin quote ***

A key assertion by people accusing Brady was that it made no sense that the footballs used by the Patriots in the AFC championship game last January – when tested at halftime – would have lost significantly more air pressure than those used by their opponents, the Indianapolis Colts. But scientists hired by the NFL discovered that measurements varied sharply depending on when at halftime the balls were tested.

According to a study by Exponent, a California-based testing firm, footballs lose air pressure during games in chilly, rainy weather, the conditions that existed on Jan. 18, 2015, in Foxborough, Massachusetts, but when returned to the warmth of a climate-controlled room, their air pressure rapidly rises close to the original internal pressure.

*** and ***

At the end of the game, four balls from the Colts and four from the Patriots were tested again. Three of the four Colts’ balls were underinflated while none of the Pats’ balls were. In other words, while the Patriots’ footballs were deflated in the first half, the Colts’ balls were deflated in both the first half and second half.

Another possible factor why the Pats’ balls tested relatively lower in psi could have been the way the balls were prepared before the game. The Pats’ balls were rubbed down to remove any slickness while the Colts’ balls were left slicker or more water resistant. One of the findings by the Exponent scientists was that wetter balls recovered their psi more slowly than drier balls when brought into a climate-controlled environment.

*** end quote ***

I “have no dog in this fight”, BUT, (and there is always a BIG butt), this seems like a lot of “hot air” with out “evidence”. (You know that stuff that fair minded people demand before anyone goes running their mouths off about stuff they have no knowledge of!)

As a baby fat old white guy injineering student in Brother Barry Austin’s “Measurements” class, we was taught that there are “errors and blunders”. But at no time do you get to just throw stuff away or throw stuff around. 

It appears that in this case, there were plenty of blunders to muck up any findings.

Two gauges — one is “not accurate”. So how does one certify that the gauge your using is correct and in proper working order?

And wet balls regain pressure due to temperature faster than dry ones.

And, the whole controversy over pressure in the locker room versus pressure in the game conditions.

It all sounds like there is a lot of opinionating going on and not much evidence or factual understanding.

Hence, imho, fuhgeddaboudit! (translation from the Brooklyn dialect: “forget about it” with a sneer.) 

# – # – # – # – # 

MEME: Anything more than year ago is a historical lesson; less than a year, it might be a mistake

http://www.pickthebrain.com/blog/why-you-shouldnt-beat-yourself-up-over-something-from-the-past/?utm_source=feedly

Why You Shouldn’t Beat Yourself Up Over Something from the Past
POSTED ON JUNE 23, 2013 BY STEVE BLOOM | CATEGORIES: COMMUNITY POSTS

*** begin quote ***

I’ll be the first person to admit that I’ve done things in the past I’m not proud of. I think most people can say that. Even if you always try to be a good person, you can end up doing something bad once in a while.

Sometimes it’s hard to look back on those past actions and rationalize them away. They can stick in your mind and make you feel bad.

But you can’t beat yourself up over them. Sometimes you just have to accept the things you’ve done and move on. Just because you did some bad things in the past doesn’t make you a bad person.

 *** end quote ***

# – # – #  

Anything more than year ago is a historical lesson; less than a year, it might be a mistake

I learned this from watching my Mom, Dad, and other family members literally drive themselves crazy. Crazy in hospital, or bottle, or worse.

Hence I formed this meme. 

Even something that is less than a year old is hard to characterize as a “mistake”.

You may have made a choice that didn’t work out the way you thought. Does that make it a mistake?

There’s no VCR in life where you can retry stuff.

Think the movie “Groundhog Day” with Bill Murray. Not only is it funny; it’s downright philosophical.

(imho)

# – # – # – # – #   

INTERESTING: Preventable mistakes happen; six sigma? NOT!

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/03/17/judge-spelling-error-gives-12-year-old-second-chance-at-competition/?test=latestnews

Judge’s spelling error gives 12-year-old a second chance at county competition
Published March 17, 2013
FoxNews.com
How do you spell M-I-S-T-A-K-E?

*** begin quote ***

A 12-year-old California girl was eliminated from a spelling bee after she spelled “Braille” correctly, but the word was spelled the wrong way on the judges’ sheet with one less “l”, KMPH reports.

*** end quote ***

Sadly, not enough concern about checking?

# – # – # – # – #   

MONEY: 12 Cognitive Biases That Endanger Investors

Good thing I have a team. Otherwise, I’d be sitting, guarding my “pirate’s chest” of gold coins. I don’t know what bias being a Gold Bug is, but I have it bad. The thieves in DC are robbing us poor folk blind. And, what’s worse, folks are clueless. Argh!

# – # – # – # – #   

12 Cognitive Biases That Endanger Investors: “

Before Todd Harrison created Minyanville, he was an options trader at Morgan Stanley, eventually becoming President of Cramer Berkowitz, where he toiled as head trader at Jim Cramer’s hedge fund.

Todd has an excellent analysis of the various biases that endanger investors.

Here is the full list:

1. Confirmation Bias
2. In-Group Bias
3. Gambler’s Fallacy
4. Post-Purchase Rationalization
5. Neglecting Probability
6. Observational Selection Bias
7. Status-Quo Bias
8. Negativity Bias
9. Bandwagon Effect
10. Projection Bias
11. The Current Moment Bias
12. Anchoring Effect

Check out his explanation and descriptions here.

 

 

Source:
12 Cognitive Biases That Endanger Investors
Todd Harrison
Minyanville January 17, 2013
http://www.minyanville.com/special-features/random-thoughts/articles/12-Cognitive-Biases-that-Endanger-Investors/1/17/2013/id/47441

(Via The Big Picture.)

 

–30–

TECHNOLOGY: Computers … …

Here’s a great quote to inspire you to write:

“To err is human, but to really foul things up you need a computer.” – Paul Ehrlich

# – # – #  

As a corollary of this, I came up with the idea of “negative progress”! I can screw up more in a wasted effort than any profess that I can make on a good day. 

seems so obvious to me, other than the concept of checkpoints, where one can fall back to a previously know good state, that one can actually “destroy” progress.

Given enough time, I am sure I can come up with examples, but who cares?

– # – # – # – #