Nothing Has Changed, Except For Everything
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, MAR 28, 2022 – 09:30 AM
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The signs and symptoms I’m paying attention to are as follows (read this list slowly, and take it all in):
- We have a market that saw the NASDAQ (an index) rise about 120% in less than 2 years off its March 2020 lows, despite the fact that our economy never materially recovered during the same period of time.
- Our money supply (M2) rose between 21.7% and 26.92% year over year, between April 2020 and February 2021. Its long term YOY average rise, including this data, is just 7.16%. Prior to 2020, most YOY growth was between 3% and 5%.
- Our inflation rate is at its highest point in about 30 years, and that is using a totally different method for measuring inflation than we used to. If we used the standards for measuring CPI in the 1980s, inflation would likely be at all time record highs for our nation.
- We have the most material hot war in Europe since World War II taking place, with little visibility on how it will end. At the same time, relations with Russia and China have not been this contentious in decades. Russia and China also look to be posing a serious, calculated challenge to the U.S. dollar’s reserve status.
- As I pointed out days ago, stocks relative to GDP are also in uncharted territory, where reversion to the mean would mean a minimum of a 40% drop from here.
But hey, Jim Cramer says he thinks “the bear market is over”. He’s on CNBC. I’m not.
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Hard to imagine what will happen when the politicians and bureaucrats have “managed” the US into a horrific depression.
It’s not going to be pretty for the non-rich.