INTERESTING: “Deal or No Deal” strategy

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Did you ever see “Deal or No Deal”?

As an IT Architecture / BPR kinda guy, I think you have to have a strategy to get through the game. (Hey, I play penny slots too. No genius here.)

The only way to get a MILLION is to have two MILLION cases at the end.

Strategy is critical to escape with a prize.

I think that can apply some elementary statistics or probability theory.

You can predict the “banker’s offer” approximately and that leads you to a process to play.

It seems to me that you can compare the offer based on picking a low or high case. Then you make the decision from that.

Suppose, for example, at any point in the game, the distribution of cases can tell you what to do relative to the offer.

The offer is “fair” if EV = ∑ (p sub i * V sub i) is equal to the Banker’s Offer.

When receiving the Banker’s Offer, one can calculate the EV (ALL) of the current set of cases, the EV (HIGH) dropping the highest case, and the EV (LOW) dropping the lowest case. In a truly random game, you can calculate the potential loss EV (LOW) – EV (ALL) . And the potential gain EV (HIGH) – EV (ALL).

The offer can then be subject to the same test.

IF there is only ONE high value, the OFFER is usually cut in half.

By comparing the potential gain versus the potential loss, that determines if the contestant should take the offer or not.

You can’t pick cases, (although 26 seems to have a MILLION more than probability would dictate), but you can have a money management strategy.

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POLITICAL: Obama’s NCAA Bracket

Saturday, March 20, 2010

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2010/03/obamas-ncaa-bracket-goes-bust-with-kansas-loss.html

Obama’s NCAA Bracket Goes Bust With Kansas Loss

March 20, 2010 8:43 PM

Joel Siegel and Karen Travers report:

*** begin quote ***

President Obama should hope that the big health-care vote scheduled for Sunday turns out better than his N.C.A.A. tournament picks.

*** end quote ***

Hmm, hope it goes against him as well. For the country’s sake!

Is this the new Presidential “Kiss of Death”?

He threatened the D’s that if they didn’t vote for his healthcare bill, he wouldn’t campaign FOR them. Maybe he should have threatened TO come campaign for them if they didn’t vote for his healthcare bill instead.

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POLITICAL: Drew Cary and Reson save Cleveland — Part 3

Saturday, March 20, 2010

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9-ozphsuSk

Why not?

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INTERESTING: A taxonoly for conspiracy threories

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Since I stand accused as a tin foil hat, I thought I should embrace it.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/233518

Know Your Conspiracies
NEWSWEEK’s guide to today’s trendiest, hippest, and least likely fringe beliefs.
By David A. Graham | Newsweek Web Exclusive
Feb 12, 2010

*** begin quote ***

Like recurring nightmares, conspiracy theories aren’t necessarily gone for good just because they disappear for a while. They often come back, sometimes in slightly different forms. Their last golden age came during the middle of the Bush administration, which saw rumors from the political left about connections between the Bushes and the bin Ladens, insinuations about the military-industrial complex and the Patriot Act—actually, pretty much every plotline in Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11. Nothing breeds paranoid theories like political exile, which means that with Democrats back in the White House, it’s the right’s turn to take up the standard, a task it isn’t shirking. And of course, several leftist theories remain in circulation. If you’re having a hard time keeping all these paranoid points of view straight, here’s a handy primer.

*** end quote ***

*** begin quote ***

1. Barack Obama was not born in the United States
2. Anthropogenic global warming is a hoax.
3. Goldman Sachs intentionally created the economic crisis.
4. Democrats’ health plan will create death panels.
5. Barack Obama is a secret Muslim.
6. Sarah Palin is not the mother of her 1-year-old son, Trig.
7. ACORN is part of a liberal conspiracy to steal elections.
8. FEMA is establishing detention camps.
9. The Council on American-Islamic Relations is trying to infiltrate Capitol Hill and spread jihad.
10. Obama wants to conscript Americans into a civilian defense corps.
11. Time magazine wants to restrict the Internet to licensed users.
12. 9/11 was an inside job.
13. The Omnibus One-World Government, Unified Currency, Dollar-Abolishing, Free Trade–Advocating Theory of Everything

*** end quote ***

That’s a list; not a taxonomy!

What makes up a “good conspiracy”?

Buzz, coverups, and some truth in the the theory.

My taxonomy: (1) Government; (2) Political; (3) Historical; and (4) Miscellaneous.

(1) Government

(1-1) 9/11 Truthers have shown enough to convince me that we didn’t get the whole story.

(1-2) Did FDR deliberately provoke the Japanese to attack Pearl Harbor and act to ensure it was a disaster.

(2) Political

(2-1) “Barack Obama”. Not that he wasn’t born in the USA; I don’t know. Just that there is a tremendous coverup of all his documentation. AND, someone is spending a ton of money to keep it hidden.

(2-3) The “Progressive Movement” is a conspiracy to convert the USA into a Marxist state.

(3) Historical; and

(3-1) Kennedy Assassination. Does any one believe that Oswald shot a magic bullet from a terrible rifle at an angle at moving target?

(3-2) The Lusitania was carrying contraband arms and should not have been an incident.

(3-3) The Federal Reserve Bank is “The Creature From Jekyll Island,”

(4) Miscellaneous

(4-1) Man Caused Global Warming, Please come shovel out my sidewalk!

(4-2) Apollo moon landings were “staged”

Is there a better taxonomy?

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INSPIRATIONAL: Fess Parker, an American Icon

Friday, March 19, 2010

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/8575904.stm

Page last updated at 09:41 GMT, Friday, 19 March 2010

Davy Crockett actor Fess Parker dies, aged 85

*** begin quote ***

Actor Fess Parker, famous for playing American pioneer Davy Crockett in Walt Disney’s classic 1950s TV series, has died in California at the age of 85.

*** end quote ***

An American icon.

A celebrity who was squeaky clean.

An example of the American hero.

Where are the replacements?

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POLITICAL: Copyrights for out-of-print books? No!

Friday, March 19, 2010

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/23683

Volume 57, Number 4 · March 11, 2010
Publishing: The Revolutionary Future
By Jason Epstein

*** begin quote ***

To offset the decline of backlist I launched in the mid-Eighties the Reader’s Catalog, an independent bookstore in catalog form from which readers could order 40,000 backlist titles by telephone. The Internet existed but had not yet been commercialized. The Reader’s Catalog was an instant success, confirming my belief in a strong worldwide market for backlist titles. But I had underestimated the cost of handling individual orders and concluded, with my backers, that if we continued our losses would become intolerable. The Internet was now available commercially. Amazon bravely took advantage of it and in the beginning suffered the losses that I feared. But by this time I had begun to hear of digitization and its buzzword, disintermediation, which meant that publishers could now look forward to marketing a practically limitless backlist without physical inventory, shipping expense, or unsold copies returned for credit. Customers would pay in advance for their purchases. This meant that even Amazon’s automated shipping facilities would eventually be bypassed by electronic inventory. This was twenty-five years ago. Today digitization is replacing physical publishing much as I had imagined it would.

*** end quote ***

As a society, we extend “copy right” protection to authors to ensure that ideas are available to benefit every one. When a book is “out of print”, then why do we give it “copy right protection” when we are denied access to the ideas. With the Internet and publish-on-demand, there is NO reason for a book to be “out of print”.

Time to reassess copyright laws.

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RECOMMENDED: “The Invention of Lying”; just to true

Thursday, March 18, 2010

201003130929.jpg

The first lie ever told: “$800”!

Theology on two pizza boxes?

Stephanie March demanding sex. (Every boy’s dream?) “When he tests his discovery of lying by telling a woman that the world will end unless she has sex with him at that very moment but backs out at the last minute by claiming to have a phone call from NASA telling him the world is not going to end now.” ROFL!

“Let me know if you’ve lowered your standards.” (Too hot for me?)

“Man In The Sky forbid!”

Unfortunately, it’s a law of Nature that “hot” girls look down on fat old white guys with or without a “snub nose”. Sigh!

Hey, for a $1 from redbox and two hours of my life, recommended.

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TECHNOLOGY: Technology malpractice; Abbott Diabetes Care dictates how you interact!

Thursday, March 18, 2010

EMAIL RECEIVED AS A RESULT OF TEDIOUSLY ASKING A QUESTION ON THEIR WEB SITE

*** begin quote ***

Hello,

Thank you for contacting Abbott Diabetes Care, maker of FreeStyle and Precision products. We are pleased to provide you with a team of dedicated Specialists to help you understand your options in obtaining the FreeStyle and Precision products. Our Specialists are available to assist you toll free at 1-866-246-2683, Monday through Friday from 7 AM to 9 PM (CST).

Please let us know if we can be of further assistance.

Sincerely,
Abbott Diabetes Care

Join the FreeStyle Promise® Program Today and BE Supported! (https://www.freestylepromise.com)

This communication may contain information that is proprietary, confidential, or exempt from disclosure. If you are not the intended recipient, please note that any other dissemination, distribution, use or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. Anyone who receives this message in error should notify the sender immediately by return e-mail and delete it from his or her computer.

*** end quote ***

No, I don’t want to call and talk to one of your “dedicated Specialists” (In a third world country?)

I just want you to answer my damn question.

If I wanted to endure the “fingernails on the blackboard” physical pain of calling your call center, I would have called in the first place.

My last THREE phone calls with product problems were really great experiences. Why would I want to repeat that experience? That’s why I sent you an email.

Argh!

If “marketing is a conversation”, Abbott Diabetes Care sure isn’t listening.

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RECOMMENDED: “Love Happens” An Aniston chick flick

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

201003130849.jpg

Hmmm!

Sweet and the bird steals the show.

Seriously, was it debunking self-help gurus (i.e.: the guru’s realization that he practices none of the principles he teaches)? Tony Robbins came to mind.

Hey for a dollar from redbox. How bad could it be?

I found it funny.

And, took a good message away. “A-OK”?

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WRITING: Words of Whizdumb (An Index Card Novel)

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Words of Whizdumb (An Index Card Novel)

The fat old white guy injineer was a real tin foil hat to the end of his days.

He’d become one in high school, after reading about the “Winds Code”. It had been introduced in the Congressional Investigation of 1945. Even to a rank novice, a mere babe, he’d blown right through that deception. After that, he was a nonbeliever. He later absorbed Stinnett’s work.

Along the way, President Kennedy was assassinated. It wasn’t until much later that he dabbled in guns. It was then he learned first hand about how unreliable a Carcano was.

After that, he was a Truther, a Birther, or whatever -er was ever offered for consideration. He believed nothing. Except maybe the fact that no one ever spoke the “truth”. And certainly, no politician or bureaucrat.

+++

He wasn’t looking for his own conspiracy theory. He was just the below-average fat old white guy drifting through life. And, as an engineering student, he muddled through all the courses — math, physics, chemistry, strength of materials — to name a few. He drifted through the military with a stop at both NASA and NSA. He had a few jobs on Wall Street. He few jobs around NYC and the suburbs.

Along the way he collected souvenirs. And, he even wrote an obscure novel that he self-published. All his friends rolled their eyes at “a future alternative history”.

+++

The fat old white guy injineer was in a frenzy. It had struck him like Saint Paul on the road from Tarsus. A few chemical tests of his brick from 9/11. An photo identification analysis of a picture he’d taken in Princeton. Water analysis of some stored bottles on the porch of his Mom’s downtown apartment. Several late lights surfing the net.

+++

He put it all on a web page. He’d emailed it to every email address he had.

Then he sat back to wait.

+++

“Is it done?”

“Yes!”

“Clean?”

“Neat and clean!!”

“And, the material?”

“All the primary evidence!!!”

“Secondary?”

“No, sir.”

“No? Explain!”

Now sweating, “Sir, it was the encrypted page that alerted us. Ever since the Patriot Act 1, we have been scanning the net with our allies in the various ISPs. The code was unbreakable. That’s what brought it to our attention.” Now really sweating. “It was obviously a book code. And, it didn’t match any of the Library of Congress books. That was the key that put the investigation in overdrive.”

Grimacing, the sweaty man knew this wasn’t going to be taken well. “The ISP gave us the identity. It didn’t take long to track him down. He didn’t use any attempt to hide like the Onion Router. Or post from a hacked account. It was really quite easy to find him. Amazon’s sample look gave us enough text from his pathetic story to decrypt enough. That’s the story. The ISPs recalled many of the messages. We nuked the web page. Google cleaned its caches. Lulu and Amazon nuked the book for sale. So while secondary evidence is not totally clean, it’s clean enough.”

“OK!”

+++

The mail that day delivered a printed copy of the webpage to several people.

The thin old Luddite friend of the fat old white guy injineer looked at the page of gobbledygook. Sad about the untimely demise. It was another crypto challenge from his old friend. the last one. He was enough of a crypto nerd to know it was a book code and he knew what book his old friend had used. Now if he could just find it.

The mail was also delivered in Iowa; two letters addressed to each of the two twin children — just babies — who were heroes and heroines in the fat old white guy injineer’s book. The babies’ dad put each letter with each twin’s autographed and dedicated book in their memory chests. Like a hope chest for when they grow up.

+++

The nation’s sheeple slumbered. Never knowing that another disturbing -er had been avoided. Suppressed.

Or had it?

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