MONEY: Old-age security is far too important to be left in the hands of the state.

Thursday, March 22, 2007

http://www.mises.org/story/2515

Old-age Security Without the State
By Oskari Juurikkala
Posted on 3/22/2007

***Begin Quote***

A better solution is to get the state out of old-age security. The trouble is that many people cannot imagine old-age security without the state. This is particularly the case in continental Europe, where few people have private pension plans. To their minds, abolishing existing social security schemes implies millions of people starving to death or freezing out in the cold.

***End Quote***

Unfortunately, that’s exactly what we have with a gooferment system.

People are starving, dying, and unhappy. It’s caused by the gooferment’s intrusion into all facets of our lives. Its taxes, its inflation, and its “insurance” has boxed people into a “prison”. You had those famous tv commercials of “Thelma and Louise” deciding to eat or pay the power bill. The FDA prevents the marketplace from delivering life saving and savings to the consumer to benefit the gooferment, its bureaucrats, and its friends in the big drug companies. It’s “insurance” prevents people from saving their own money, earning after retirement, or passing along the fruits of their labor to their posterity.

The private solutions — family, financial markets, mutual aid societies, charities, and work — are all destroyed by gooferment. The gooferment manipulates us by: taxes, inflation, “laws”, regs, diktats, “insurance”, and propaganda.

Until we shake them off, we’ll never have a truly SECURE retirement in America.


MONEY: Wise words

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north518.html

Read in a Gray North article

“If your outgo is higher than your income, your upkeep will be your downfall.”


MONEY: A coffee can, a shovel, and a planter!

Saturday, March 17, 2007

http://www.lewrockwell.com/hein/
hein160.html

http://tinyurl.com/334mny

The Big Unknown
by Paul Hein

***Begin Quote***

For example, no one at the bargaining table is going to interrupt proceedings to ascertain what, precisely, is meant by “hour.” The discussions will not hang on what is meant by “week,” or “year.” Common sense dictates you don’t quibble over words that have a universally understood meaning. Sadly, that also seems to include the word “dollar,” although no one sitting around the negotiating table could define it.

***AND***

And simple curiosity would prompt one to ask why this inability to define one of the most basic units in society should exist. Why cannot “dollar” be defined with as much precision as “quart” or “pound?” The only conceivable answer, I think, is that “quart” and “pound” measure something. No one goes to the store to buy a quart, or a pound, but only a quart of milk, or a pound of potatoes. But “dollar?” Of what is the dollar a unit? In general, of course, the answer is money. And what is that? Once, it was silver, and for a while, gold. Today it is nothing.

***End Quote***

And, in a nutshell, the author has expressed eloquently my problem with planning in the “modern economy”. Now I don’t think I am a doom or gloomer. Not too much! But, I can see all the clouds on the horizon. Of all the risks facing a retiree, there are several 800 pound gorillas.

Will the USA break the promises it makes?

A retiree has a lot “invested” with gooferment. Certainly it violates the 5% rule.

The Social Security Insurance ponzi scheme has several components in that promise: the defined benefit amount, the retirement age, Medicare health care benefit, what it covers, the Medicare drug benefit, and the taxability of the benefits.

The gooferment can also easily upset the planning by messing with inflation, taxation, and regulation.

The deficit, the debt, and the continued “buying votes with future benefits” are all going to the road to perdition at a quickening pace.

Finally, one has to recognize that the gooferment permits “under funding”. Corporations under fund their pension plans. Gooferment itself under funds the pension and medical benefits promised to its own gooferment employees. And, by its involvement in healthcare and drugs, it “under funds” what the marketplace would normally direct to those “silver bullets”. (Drugs are cheaper than hospitalizations. Healthy people are productive people. Nursing homes for “indigents” are obscenely expensive. And Alzhiemer’s, Parkinson, and senility destroys everyone.)

So how does the old fogy invest in this climate. Assuming that you’ve done proper planning, you’re doing a lot of investing. But, if you come upon a windfall, what do you do.

I’m a gold bug. No bones about it.

Of all the things that the gooferment can do to upset my apple cart, the big ones are changing tax policy, “adjusting” the taxability of benefits, and adding a means test to benefits.

So you want to have enough assets for a comfortable retirement, but perhaps you don’t want to have too much on paper?

Like the “medicare trusts” of today’s planners, you have to think ahead. A medicare trust is where the assets are put in trust to get them excluded from the medicare eligibility calculation. People use it to get their old relative’s nursing home paid for by the gooferment and preserve the old relative’s estate that gets passed to their heirs. Dirty pool, but legal.

But, when all these “blank checks” come due, maybe it might pay to have assets that don’t show up on paper anywhere.

Bullion coins!?!

They don’t earn interest. They don’t take up a lot of space. They certainly don’t depreciate with inflation. AND, the don’t show up on any statement or tax return.

A coffee can, a shovel, and a planter!

It won’t be the treasure of the Count of Monte Cristo. But, it might be the difference between being poor and being secure.


MONEY: Social Security Integration .., biz’s claims can confuse

Monday, March 12, 2007

http://www.aarpmagazine.org/money/Articles/
a2003-01-21-7costly.html

http://tinyurl.com/ywtgfr

***Begin Quote***

Learn the secret lingo

The first phrase you need to commit to memory is “Social Security integration.” Yeah, it’s a doozy. Say it out loud several times so you don’t forget. The phrase signifies that your company uses a tricky formula to calculate your pension that in effect mingles projected Social Security earnings with your company benefit to make your future look rosier than it really is. “It can be completely devastating,” says Hotz. For example, if your pre-retirement company statement tells you you’re going to get, say, $1,000 a month as a pension, and Social Security tells you you’re going to get $1,000 a month, you may logically conclude that you’ll get $2,000 a month to live on. Instead, with Social Security integration, you could be looking at $1,500, since pension pay is reduced by up to 50 percent of the amount of Social Security you receive. About half of all companies use Social Security integration.

***End Quote***

Wow! That’s a new one on me. Seems unfair to claim credit for social security, which one may never get, may be taxable, and could really make it harder to know where you stand.

Argh!


MONEY: Figuring the market

Tuesday, March 6, 2007

There no “flux”. It’s a cyclic bull inside secular bear market. Yeah, I know “wt…”!

The secular trend (aka the channel) is the very long term trend. It’s bearish. It’s generally accepted that that long term trend is to lower valuations. PEs are at record highs. Oil is creeping back up. The Chinese are out of balance in trade. AND, the gooferment has several structural financial problems — out of balance budget, mounting debt, war costs, inflation, medicare costs escalating, medicare’s drug benefit, social security is unfunded, government pensions, government benefits — that make for bad news! The secular trend is evidenced by lower highs and lower lows. The cyclic trend is bullish(aka were going up inside the channel). There is no evidence of “bad news”. Business still are showing profits. Albeit slowing, but still profits. The structure of the economy seems to be good enough to support the normal course of business.

So, we are looking at is oscillation inside a channel that is sloped down. Watch the charts as the daily results bounce between the boundaries.

What should someone do?

Depends upon your age, and what kind of money it is.

If we are talking tax-deffered retirement money for a young person, then you want to be fully diversified, fully advantaged, and tactically shifting the mix as it seems fitting. If we are talking non-tax-deffered, then one has to be less careful (i.e., losses are deductible). A non-market-timer, buy and hold, average joe should be really careful in this environment. We’re going down. The only question is how far, how fast, and when.

My personal strategy, and I’m an old fart, that doesn’t have the ten years for the market to come back, is to in April 15th, take a conservative position with ½ maybe even more of ALL retirement and non-retirement money. I am expecting that all the IRA contributions to support the market thru April. Like deal or nodeal, I like to look at the upside versus the downside. With the S&P, and most metrics at near records, with PEs in the stratosphere, I postulate ex-cathedra from my belly button, is upside 1500 from 1350 and downside 900 from 1350. Numbers are approximate. That’s 11% up and 33% down.

So, I’d be very careful about taking a big loss in a retirement account.

In tax-protected accounts, I’m moving half or more to cash in April.

In taxable account, I’m confused. If I sell to move to cash, I’ll have to pay taxes ~25%. If the downside is 33%, then the loss would be 8%. I’m much more tempted to roll the dice. I’m reviewing each holding and trying read the entrails of the chickens to determine how the individual will fare in the downdraft.

Hopefull, if you’ve read my book,

https://reinkefj.wordpress.com/2006/06/30/muny-mental-lock-in-or-training-elephants/

then there is no single investment that will put a hole below the waterline.

I try to think about pyramid. Emergency fund and savings should be untouched by any down draft in the market.

If you’re efund and savings are defective, then that’s a different problem.


MONEY: Rebates … you almost fooled me.

Monday, March 5, 2007

I was about to buy some cheap tech dodad online when I noticed the price jumped when I went to check out.

Rebate?

I don’t know about you but I’ve learned my lesson. I don’t do rebates! I think it’s an unfair business practice.

As a matter of fact, I punish vendors with this scam. I refuse to do business with them at all.

Good bye Buy Dot Com.

You almost fooled me. But you won’t get that chance again.


MONEY: Been stung? I have. But not again.

Saturday, March 3, 2007

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north512.html

The Gold-Plated Sting
by Gary North

***Begin Quote***

If a free market gold standard ever arrives, it will be the result of an unplanned response by men and women to a disaster created by the existing central bank cartel. This would require that the switch be preceded by massive inflation, followed by deflation, producing the bankruptcy of the existing banks and brokerage houses.

***End Quote***

Well, I clearly agree, it probably would take some catastrophe to get back to a gold currency. There may be a peaceful solution.

Gresham’s Law, “bad money drives good out of circulation”, ensures that gold can’t circulate alongside FRBies at the same time.

I look at the times of Hyperinflation as the “BIG entrance door” to getting back to gold. It has to be the sudden awakening from the fiat currency delusion. There have been examples of a country’s economy stopping. The Politicians keep inflating, after all it’s free money to them, and eventually the food prices escalate faster than earning power. I have had the phenomena of “wait an hour and your money is worthless” described to me by people who lived thru it. She described going to her husband’s office several times a day, taking what he had been paid for his work, and buying anything in the marketplace. Anything was better than paper. That was an economics lesson for me. Paper is paper. It only has value as long as the marketplace takes it. And, as we know, when the market crashes, the exit door isn’t wide enough for everyone at the same time.

The “little door” peaceful solution might be that people recognize the scam of paper fiat currency and “game” the system. Clearly, owning something is better than owning dollars. Owning something that generates wealth is better than something that doesn’t. Inflation is the hidden tax on holding dollars. If we guesstimate that the inflation rate is 5%, then a dollar to day is .95 next year, .9025 in two years, .8573 in three, .2146 in 30, and .0769 in 50. Suppose that the rate goes to 10%, the progression is 0.9000, 0.8100, 0.7290, 0.6561, 0.5905 with .0424 in 30 years and .0052 in 50! So the actual rate of inflation is very important. So you NEVER want to hold dollars. Envision burying a cash horde in your back yard. Dig it up in fifty years and you’ve got waste paper.

So how does one deal with the reality.

  • Holding dollars is always wrong! (i.e., do you want the pirate’s chest to be full of dollars?)
  • Having a commodity is a long term store of value. (i.e., two gold coins have historically always bought a fine’s mens suit)
  • A productive asset is intrinsically valuable (i.e., the cow gives milk every day).

One “games” the system by not being fooled into thinking that FRBbies are “money”. Money is a store of value.


MONEY: Ignore the NPV of money at your own peril.

Thursday, March 1, 2007

>Posted by: “Norm Higgs” in MLPF
>Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:00 pm (PST)
>The problem here is that ‘Saved’ money doesn’t do the economy any good –

No, “saved money” is the capital — the foresworn consumption — by which the economy can expand.

Quick trip to Crusoe’s island that economists love so much. If Caruso needs five days to make a better fish catcher (i.e., a net), he needs to “save” five days of “food catching” so that he can “invest” in a better fish catcher. Savings is savings.

So, one of the problems of Keynesian economics is that “inflation”, (expanding the money supply by printing more fiat currency), doesn’t “save” anything to pay for the capital goods. Crusoe can’t print “fish” to eat while he weaves a net.

When money is not backed by a commodity, the market gets confused. (Actually the individuals in the market are confused as to values.) A capital project (i.e., weaving a net) looks more profitable than it really is. (Technically called malinvestment!) So, for example, with artificially low mortgage rates, I buy a house to rent that is unprofitable when there are no renters or when the Fed raises interest rates.

We “save” so little because, for example, in my gut, I KNOW that the house I bought 30 years ago for 47,000 “dollars” is not really really worth 475,000 “dollars” today. Regardless of what the tax assessor or the real estate agent says, I know that the dollars ain’t the same.

Some wall street wag christened bank cds as “certificates of depreciation”.

Sadly, savings doesn’t make a lot of sense in today’s inflationary climate. The talk about “global warming”, that’s nothing compared to all the “financial hot air” that’s being blown into the money supply.

I think this is important to MLPF because it means that business decisions, money, and deals — internationally — have to recognize that there is a significant distortion in the time value of money. So, imho, guesstimates have to have fudge factor added for inflation. I personally think it is 2% higher than the available short term certificate of deposit rate. So, if presented with a cash flow in dollars, then one can’t evaluate it WITHOUT considering the Net Present Value http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_present_value to bring future “dollars” into current “dollars” for comparison. I think investors, business people, and the ordinary joe six pack ignore the depreciation in value of their “dollars” at their own financial peril.


MONEY: Everybody should have a cash stash!

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

http://www.thesimpledollar.com/2007/02/25/
why-i-keep-cash-under-my-mattress/

http://tinyurl.com/23s4v4

Why I Keep Cash Under My Mattress
February 25, 2007 @ 9:00 am – Written by Trent
Categories: Insurance

***Begin Quote***

It’s true. After all the financial advice I give out on this site, I keep a decent amount of cash “under my mattress” (actually, it’s in another secure place in my home, but it’s effectively the same thing). At first, this seems to fly right in the face of everything I preach on this site. Why isn’t this money at least earning 4.5% in an ING Direct savings account, if not earning a lot more in a mutual fund or something else? No, because this is a different kind of investment.

***End Quote***

Me too. And, gold coins.

Power outages, political instability, or a bank holiday.

There are all sorts of things that can happen. Bail out a relative? How much is up to you? The Mormons keep a year’s food supply. If you practice stock rotation, it can be a hedge against disruption and unemployment.

Everybody should have a stash!


MONEY: Alternative Minimum Tax to hit 23M taxpayers. Here’s one way to a flat tax.

Sunday, February 25, 2007

http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110009705

Bill Clinton’s AMT Bomb
Why millions in the middle class may see their tax bill explode.
Friday, February 23, 2007 12:01 a.m. ESTtitle

***Begin Quote***

As tax season nears, Democrats in Congress are discovering they have an urgent political bomb to defuse–the alternative minimum tax. The AMT already hits four million Americans, and without new legislation this year it will explode in the pocketbooks of 23 million taxpayers come April 15, 2008.

***End Quote***

What you don’t want to pay “your fair share” “for the children”?

We don’t need “tax reform”. The Fed will just inflate everyone into a straight no deductions one sizes fits all tax.

Shesh.

And, what part of “I don’t consent” does the gooferment gang of thugs not understand?