GOVEROTRAGEOUS: Cramer (a leftist) points out how O doesn’t get it!

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

http://www.mainstreet.com/article/moneyinvesting/news/cramer-takes-white-house-frank-rich-and-jon-stewart?page=6

Posted March 09, 2009
Cramer Takes on the White House, Frank Rich and Jon Stewart
By Jim Cramer

*** begin quote ***

Suddenly, bloggers, opinion people, columnists and, yes, pundits who haven’t paid attention to anything I have been saying or writing for the past 18 months are all over me. Suddenly, I find myself in the center of a firestorm over Obama’s economic policies, taking enfilading fire from the “liberal” media (from serious columnist Frank Rich to entertainer Jon Stewart) while being defended by Rush Limbaugh, the standard-bearer for the Republicans.

*** and ***

The answer lies in the way the two administrations handled criticism.

The Bush administration, I believed, simply chose to ignore my warnings, perhaps because of a brutal combination of ideology, fecklessness and complacency.

*** and ***

President Obama’s team, unlike Bush’s team, demonstrates a thinness of skin that shocks me. When I somewhat obviously and empirically judged that the populist Obama administration is exacerbating the crisis with its budget and policies, as evidenced by the incredible decline in the averages since his inauguration, I was met immediately with condescension and ridicule rather than constructive debate or even just benign dismissal.

*** and ***

The markets thought he could stop it; hence the giant relief rally when he was elected. But in fewer than 50 days of his ascendancy, the markets’ hopes were totally dashed and the averages are now forecasting the worst decline since the Great Depression. As someone who listens to what the averages are screaming, I think they are accurately predicting the future.

I welcome any serious exchange with the administration on the issues that are not beyond my ken: fixing house price depreciation, stopping the destruction of wealth as demonstrated by the stock market’s plunge, and solving the banking crisis before we nationalize every bank.

*** and ***

It’s time to get serious. It’s time to take the issue from the pundits and from the left and right, and put it where it belongs: serious non-ideological debate to put out the real firestorm, the collapse of the economy from Wall Street to Main Street and the ensuing Great Wealth Destruction for all.

But if it stays ad hominem, we will all be betrayed and the train wreck will become inevitable.

*** end quote ***

The inept politicians from both sides of the aisle have destroyed the investments of most people. And, all we get from them is “spend more” and “borrow more”.

STOP!

You’re putting future generations in a hole they will never get out of.

Let the failures go bankrupt. Tough medicine.

We are training future generations NOT to invest.

I’ve had two conversations that are noteworthy.

A young woman has pulled out of her 401k because the losses have eaten into her employer’s contribution and hers. A doctor is moving from equities to bonds and his “financial advisor” at the brokerage house thought it was a good idea (i.e., he gets a commission on trades; not results).

The Market’s P/E ratio is either in or going into the single digits. (Last time that happened the market doubled in a year!) The “natural recovery” from a downturn has already begun. See the uptick in home sales as the “affordability” measure is it’s lowest in decades.

Note to O: (1) Reinstate the uptick rule. (2) Aim the corporate beggars to the bankruptcy courts. (3) Grab your various regulators and ask them to resign. (4) Eliminate Federal guarantees of ARMs, Interest only, and any mortgage that’s not 20% down 30 year fixed “conforming”. (4) Tell the FBI anf your Federal Prosecutors you want some FRAUD convictions for all the bad paper. (5) Tell the SBA that you want a plan to stimulate small business by the end of the day.

Cut the spending, cut the debt, cut the waste.

Argh!

Like that’s ever going to happen!

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MONEY: TLOCM “the land of critical mass” is 10M$!

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Bob Brinker talks about “the land of critical mass”. This is the place in your life where money is no longer a concern and you are able to live the lifestyle of your desire.

5 year @ 12 month ladder = 60 units

100k per year = 5% of 2,000,000

5 year CDs @ 5% is 10 M$ = 60 monthly 5 year CDs @ 166, 666$ for each CD

So the “land of critical mass” is about 10M$.

Wow.

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MONEY: Principal Group?

Saturday, November 8, 2008

On Bob Brinker’s radio program today, during the second hour, had a caller call and report that one of the Principal Group’s Stable Value Funds was refusing redemptions. That’s earthshaking. Bob advise legal counsel be retained. Doesn’t sound good for Principal?

Also, on the show, a caller reported a 30+% loss in an California Muncipal Money Market fund. That shouldn’t be possible?

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MONEY: CD Ladders for the novice.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

What are “Ladders?

A ladder is a climbing device that is characterized by “rungs” that one steps on as you move “upward”. Oh, you knew that. In the financial world, ladders are a bundle of financial assets that have different maturities over time. Those assets could be bonds with different due dates; as opposed to stocks that are an equity interest.

Ladders are of interest in that one can construct a portfolio of bonds that has essentially a different characteristic from the underlying components. Bonds have some typical characteristics: amount, term, rate, and rating. Using a “ladder”, you can create a portfolio that has an higher effective annual interest rate than you’d anticipate. Using a different type of “ladder”, you can create your own version of a bond mutual fund. And, using again a different type of ladder, you can create your own “pension fund”.

“Certificate of Deposit” ladders, my particular favorite, are essentially a bundle of individual certificates of deposit that you consider as a unit or a “portfolio”. You can use all sorts of bonds and even preferred stock as you see fit. My preference is for FDIC insured Certificates of Deposit. (Please be sure to check with the FDIC website. This is pretty much as close to certainty as you can get.)

One drawback of say one year certificates of deposit is that of the low interest rate; use a ladder to get the five year rate. One drawback of a bond mutual fund is that variability in the value of the fund as interest rates fluctuate. One draw back of a pension from a pension fund is that the monthly pension goes away at death.

If you look into the technical descriptions, you will find that our “CD Ladder” overcomes many of the drawbacks. Low one year CD rates can be overcome by rolling five year CD terms. (More about that later) The fluctuation of a bond fund can be overcome by the date certain aspect of a CD; you always get your money back regardless of interest rates. And, the pension check disappearing at death can be overcome by the ladder goes into your estate when you die.

Laddering is a hedge against market volatility. If rates go up, you will be able to invest in a higher rate CD; bond funds lose value when rates go up. On the other hand, if the rates go down, at least you’ve got the other CDs invested at a good rate for longer and the not all of your eggs come due at the same time; bond funds go up in value but pay less interest at the new rate.

To create a CD ladder, you buy several CDs with varying lengths and interest rates. Let’s just use a simple ladder that I recommend to old retirees. The “12 by 5”! Think 60 Five Year 5% CDs spread out over the Twelve Months across Five Years that mature every month. Lets use a portfolio of 60k$ for ease of thinking. Every month, they have a 1k$ CD to roll over. They can take the interest 50$ and party. Trivial for a pension, right? But these are rich senior citizens. Make that a 50K$ CD and that’s 2.5k$ per month. Or, 30k$ per year. That’s a 3M$ portfolio. Better than Social Security. And, it safe, secure, and can be created by an individual with ease. Sleep easy!

OK, you don’t have 3M$ idle and let’s look at another example.

Emergency funds, or savings, are nicely addressed by a “4 by 5” ladder. Think 20 Five Year 5% CDs spread out over the Four Quarters across Five Years. Lets use an Emergency Fund of 100k$. That should cover most emergencies I can think of. Every quarter, you have a 5k$ CD that comes due and you roll it over. Should an emergency come that requires tapping the fund, you just break the last CD. Usually the penalty is just the interest. Some banks will even give you a loan at a very cheap rate, pledging the CD as collateral. It’s a little hard to crack into them, so you’re less likely to call an emergency that isn’t a true one. Since you’d lose money by doing anything with them, you’re motivated to figure out an alternative. But, if you need them, they are there. I like borrowing against them as opposed to cashing them.

Entry into the program is relatively simple. When starting, we bought five “First Quarter” (i.e., 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years), a Ninety Day for “Second Quarter”, a One Eighty Day for the “Third Quarter”, and a Two Seventy Day for the “Fourth Quarter”. Then, at each quarter, we “exploded” the roll over into the five “children” (i.e., 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years). Hardest part was to explain to the Bank Folks what we wanted. We had to be very focused. Exiting from the program is just stopping the roll overs.

You may need to be a little tactical in getting to the target distribution. Banks usually have “special deals” for odd terms. Recently, when we were setting up the previously described “4 by 5”, the Bank had a “sale” on some odd terms at significantly higher rates. In looking at the odd terms, it was possible to “steer” them into giving us what we wanted.

Opinion: These are essential for old retirees. But of limited usefulness for young workers, except for use as emergency funds and for the savings layer of their financial pyramid, where they serve very nicely.

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MONEY: Might your employer be at fault for your 401k loss?

Monday, October 13, 2008

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/023453.html

October 11, 2008 Your 401k Plan – Breach of Fiduciary Duty? Posted by Karen DeCoster at October 11, 2008 06:24 AM

* begin quote *

Some friends and family have asked me to advise them on their choice of investments because they are down – an obvious point – in their 401k plans. A bit late, and there’s not much you can do anyways. But …prior to the meltdown, so few people were really willing to understand and believe that there was a financial storm in their future.

* and *

While snooping around, I immediately noticed something in this Wachovia plan that is epidemic nowadays. There is absolutely no option to invest in something that is low in risk. Typically, if you are predicting that the market will go South (as I have been for years), you’d look for a 100% US T-Bill option in your 401k, even if you only park it there in the short term. However, this person’s plan had absolutely no low-risk option whatsoever.

* end quote *

I know that everyone TRIES to keep liability at arm’s length from the business.

BUT, (there is always a big butt),

in this case, I think there may be a claim that has some merit against the employer and the fund company.

In my younger days, I would sneer at derision at “guaranteed return” offerings. I still do.

(Look at all those “safe” bond funds who have Lehman bonds in their portfolio, and tell me about safe! Money market funds as well. Icelandic banks. Inet banks. Yada, yada, yada!)

If a 401k has no “guaranteed” offering, I suspect that a claim could be made and imho would be paid off quietly.

?

Disclaimer: I’m not a lawyer, CPA, or even “thin, young, and handsome” any more. (Any More?)

Get me on the jury, present me with a good case, and I find for the “little guy” all the time.

Just my nickel’s work. (Two cents after inflation?)

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