INTERESTING: Interesting question about type 1 and 2 errors

Monday, September 6, 2010

Interesting discussion with CRITICALCAREDOC#1 about tests and treatments.

With treatments, the criteria medical folks use is how many do I have to treat to save one life? With tests, the criteria is “is it dispositive”. In testing large numbers, how sensitive is the test, what is the error rate, and the impact.

He used his experience in the late 80’s discussion of HIV testing. The estimate was that 1 out of 10,000 people have the condition. If I have a test for HIV that’s 99% accurate. It will positively id 99 out of 100 who have the condition. If I have a population of 1,000,000 people, that means in that million, there are 1,000 people with the condition. SO I run my test and I find 990 people who have it and miss 10. BUT, I also have told 9,900 people that they have it, but they really don’t.

So in testing, it’s important to know what the statistics of the test are. Every test has false negative and false positives. Just because you’re dealing with a population of one, the stats still apply.

In the test that we inquired about, that KIDNEYDOC#4 added, it has very high sensitivity but may NOT be dispositive. Whatever it tells you, you must consider that it maybe wrong. And, you may not have caught it when it is malfunctioning. And, you may or may not be able to treat it.

So, what I got out of it is that this test is marked as status “KFH”!

(Keep Family Happy)

Argh!

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In fat old white guy injineer’s school, we applied that to measurements. Funny to hear it applied to real people.

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INTERESTING: A stunning flash of the obvious

Friday, September 3, 2010

http://www.lewrockwell.com/gatto/gatto-uhae-1.html

The Way It Used To Be
by John Taylor Gatto

*** begin quote ***

The Art Of Driving

Now come back to the present while I demonstrate that the identical trust placed in ordinary people 200 years ago still survives where it suits managers of our economy to allow it. Consider the art of driving, which I learned at the age of eleven. Without everybody behind the wheel, our sort of economy would be impossible, so everybody is there, IQ notwithstanding. With less than thirty hours of combined training and experience, a hundred million people are allowed access to vehicular weapons more lethal than pistols or rifles. Turned loose without a teacher, so to speak. Why does our government make such presumptions of competence, placing nearly unqualified trust in drivers, while it maintains such a tight grip on near-monopoly state schooling?

An analogy will illustrate just how radical this trust really is. What if I proposed that we hand three sticks of dynamite and a detonator to anyone who asked for them. All an applicant would need is money to pay for the explosives. You’d have to be an idiot to agree with my plan – at least based on the assumptions you picked up in school about human nature and human competence.

And yet gasoline, a spectacularly mischievous explosive, dangerously unstable and with the intriguing characteristic as an assault weapon that it can flow under locked doors and saturate bulletproof clothing, is available to anyone with a container. Five gallons of gasoline have the destructive power of a stick of dynamite. The average tank holds fifteen gallons, yet no background check is necessary for dispenser or dispensee. As long as gasoline is freely available, gun control is beside the point. Push on. Why do we allow access to a portable substance capable of incinerating houses, torching crowded theaters, or even turning skyscrapers into infernos? We haven’t even considered the battering ram aspect of cars – why are novice operators allowed to command a ton of metal capable of hurtling through school crossings at up to two miles a minute? Why do we give the power of life and death this way to everyone?

It should strike you at once that our unstated official assumptions about human nature are dead wrong. Nearly all people are competent and responsible; universal motoring proves that. The efficiency of motor vehicles as terrorist instruments would have written a tragic record long ago if people were inclined to terrorism. But almost all auto mishaps are accidents, and while there are seemingly a lot of those, the actual fraction of mishaps, when held up against the stupendous number of possibilities for mishap, is quite small. I know it’s difficult to accept this because the spectre of global terrorism is a favorite cover story of governments, but the truth is substantially different from the tale the public is sold.

*** end quote ***

It’s so obvious, it hurts! The assumptions are wrong!

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INTERESTING: Glenn Beck’s new site

Thursday, September 2, 2010

http://www.theblaze.com/

Glen Beck’s new site.

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INTERESTING: Shore workers from foreign countries because USA kids won’t work?

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

http://blog.nj.com/njv_mark_diionno/2010/08/young_adults_from_abroad_work.html

*** begin quote ***

“Of our 1,600 seasonal employees, 750 are foreign students,” said Denise Beckson, who makes all international hires for Morey’s Piers in Wildwood. “We couldn’t run the pier without them.”

*** end quote ***

This says a lot about what’s wrong with the USA and the world.

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INTERESTING: Did a 100k words over about 100 days

Sunday, August 22, 2010

201008221233.jpg

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INTERESTING: Heuristics; my ROTs (Rules of Thumb)

Friday, August 20, 2010

http://www.happiness-project.com/happiness_project/2010/07/reconsider-the-rules-of-thumb-you-use-in-everyday-life.html

Re-Consider the Rules of Thumb You Use in Everyday Life.

from The Happiness Project by Gretchen Rubin

*** begin quote ***

My adventures in the lands of happiness research led me to the concept of heuristics. Heuristics are “rules of thumb,” the quick, common-sense principles people apply to solve a problem or make a decision. They aren’t “rules for living” that you consciously try to apply; rather, they’re deeply embedded, often unconscious, rules that you use to make decisions, answer a question, or decide a course of action.

*** and ***

My children are my most important priority.

Exercise every day.

People don’t notice my mistakes and flaws as much as I think.

My husband is my top priority.

“Yes” comes right away; “no” never comes.

Get some work done every day.

Whenever possible, choose vegetables.

I know as much as most people.

Try to attend any party or event to which I’m invited.

My parents are almost always right.

Ubiquity is the new exclusivity.

If I’m not sure whether to include some text in my writing, cut it out.

When making a choice about what to do, choose work.

I’m too busy to do that.

There’s no wrong decision.

Always say hello.

People in business, small or large, will take advantage of you if they can.

What would my mother do?

Actually, this is good news.

Say yes.

This is the fun part.

Do nothing, go nowhere.

Do everything all at once.

*** end quote ***

MINE:

  1. Frau is Job #1.
  2. Doctors and nurses are educated and experienced resources; they are not the Pope and this ain’t matters of faith and morals.
  3. Fool me or make a fool of me once; no second chances.
  4. Stop lights are the Universe telling me to slow down and look around.
  5. In a decade, will I care? Will anyone? So, why do I now?
  6. MYOB!
  7. Go for the gusto; go “big” or go home.
  8. I am not my “job”. I am not who I was or am; I am what I will be.
  9. Focus on Quadrant 1 activities: “Important” and “Urgent”.
  10. Your priorities are not NECESSARILY mine. Your lack of planning doesn’t constitute n emergency on my part.
  11. Begin with the end in mind. Planning is everything; plans are meaningless.
  12. 7 P’s (PPPPPPP)
  13. There is no such thing as “over communication”. There is ALWAYS someone who is out of the loop thru NO fault of their own.
  14. There is no substitute for good written DOCTRINE; there’s no excuse for failing to do “LESSONS LEARNED”.
  15. Don’t get mad; get working.
  16. NEVER assume that the organization’s objectives are aligned with yours; figure them out and protect yourself.
  17. There’s no substitute for accurate written records; remember the hearsay rule.
  18. Can’t cheat an honest man. Live life as if you’re going to explain your conduct to your Mom, Grandmom, and the Creator.
  19. Life is not like Jeopardy. There’s no extra credit for rudely shouting out the answer.
  20. The only “dumb” question is the one that you don’t ask. If you’re thinking it, someone else is too.
  21. The Shouldas, couldas, and wouldas will make you miserable; discard them asap. One year amnesty on mistakes.
  22. Set up systems that are automatic; your intentions have to be backed up with actions.
  23. You are neither as smart as you think; nor as dumb as you act.
  24. Do quick tasks; partition and schedule big ones. Do something to advance the ball. Dispatch the long running tasks quickly.
  25. Multiple “top priorities” means you have no priorities.

What are yours?

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INTERESTING: Question about the SCOTUS terms

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

How about the idea of a single 18 year term for justices on the Supreme Court.

I’m adverse with tinkering with the wisdom of the Dead Old White Guys like was done with the direct election of senators.

BUTT (there’s always a big but) this proposal appears to have merit.

* each prez gets a pick; prevents “popular packing” by judges timing their “retirement”.

* doddering old “scholars” will be respectfully booted off.

* it presents a problem if one of them dies prematurely.

* probably should be accompanied by an age qualification (i.e. 65, 70,75?) to ensure that post-SCOTUS employment opportunities don’t enter into judicial decisions.

Your thoughts?

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INTERESTING: Inet radio

Thursday, August 12, 2010

http://picocool.com/design/heritage-deluxe-table-radio-by-revo/

Heritage Deluxe Table Radio by Revo

*** begin quote ***

We’re not that happy with the typical iPod docks from Sharper Image – they’re a bit too shiny, a bit too soulless. Consider then, this Heritage Deluxe Table Radio by Revo.

*** end quote ***

Needs to be wifi and have a “cheaper version”. It has to get in to where folks will buy it on a lark. The wifi support must allow the wifi lans to be predefined (i.e., like a hospital; home; work). Nice idea but incomplete.

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INTERESTING: Constantly putting up a front is psychologically taxing; physically?

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

http://artofmanliness.com/2010/08/08/the-masks-men-wear

The Masks Men Wear by Brett & Kate McKay on August 8, 2010

*** begin quote ***

Researchers who study primates, like baboons, have learned never to tranquilize a male in front of his rivals. Once the male goes down, his competitors see the opportunity to pounce on him and will viciously attack the helpless baboon. No such problem exists when researchers tranquilize female primates. One can see then why male primates that are sick or injured will put on displays of vitality and vigor when their rival is around, only to go back to licking their wounds when once again by themselves. Biologists theorize that perhaps our human ancestors dealt with same issue-they couldn’t appear vulnerable or their rivals would see an opening, an opportunity. So our male ancestors learned to hide weakness and act tough. But constantly putting up this front can be psychologically taxing.

*** end quote ***

So that’s why men die sooner than woman? Keeping that front up is hard work.

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INTERESTING: Moral Hazard

Monday, August 9, 2010

http://cafehayek.com/2010/08/successful-bailout.html

Successful Bailout? by Don Boudreaux on August 2, 2010

*** begin quote ***

Second – and more importantly – the chief economic case against the bailout was not that huge infusions of taxpayer funds and special exemptions from bankruptcy rules could not make G.M. and Chrysler profitable. Of course they could. Instead, the heart of the case against the bailout is that it saps the life-blood of entrepreneurial capitalism. The bailout reinforces the debilitating precedent of protecting firms deemed ‘too big to fail.’ Capital and other resources are thus kept glued by politics to familiar lines of production, thus impeding entrepreneurial initiative that would have otherwise redeployed these resources into newer, more-dynamic, and more productive industries.

*** end quote ***

“The broken window fallacy”
— Frédéric Bastiat Ce qu’on voit et ce qu’on ne voit pas (That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen) 1850

I know for certain that the 5k$ that Obama robbed from my wife’s IRA could have been used to do something she wanted to do. Even if the bankruptcy only gave her a dollar, it was still HER dollar; not his!

Seizure by the Gooferment. Worked for FDR; worked for Obama. I won’t forget it either.

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