ENCOURAGING: The outcome shadows decision quality

https://bookfreak.substack.com/p/book-freak-193-how-to-decide?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1194226&post_id=183593966&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1uhcoe&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Book Freak #193: How to Decide
Simple Tools for Making Better Choices
Mark Frauenfelder
Jan 13, 2026

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Stop “Resulting”

“Resulting” is Duke’s term for judging a decision’s quality by its outcome. A good decision can lead to a bad outcome (and vice versa) because of factors outside your control. When you overfit decision quality to outcome quality, you risk repeating errors that preceded a lucky good outcome and avoiding good decisions that didn’t work out due to bad luck.

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“The quality of the outcome casts a shadow over our ability to see the quality of the decision.” — Annie Duke poker player

What a great observation!  Too often, I’ve confused the result with the decision process.  I wonder now, if I’ve been betrayed by my own paradigms?

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