PROD: Thinking about how we DON’T have repeatability in life. Sigh.

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

http://www.mises.org/story/2289

The Economics of Groundhog Day
By DW MacKenzie
Posted on 8/30/2006
***Begin Quote***

In Groundhog Day Bill Murray plays Phil Connors, a man who relives a particular day — Groundhog Day — many times. In the first instance Phil Connors lives through this day quite imperfectly.

***AND***

The lessons we learn each day are at best only partially valid for the next day. Consequently we can at best hope for only a gradual improvement in our lives as we keep pace with but never overtake changes in our surroundings. Our reality is to live our lives as Phil Connors did the first time he lived through Groundhog Day, not the last time. We are all speculators and our every action is innovative.

***End Quote***

This fellow helped me understand why I like this dumb movie so much. It works in so many dimensions.

(1) We don’t get to do life over. First time thru is our only time thru.

(2) How many times do we get to know what someone really thinks is important? In one the iterations, he discovers what the girl likes to drink. Next integration, he passes that hurdle only to fail on French Literature. It reminds me of the JoHari window. A ton of information is in the two quadrants we can’t see.

(3) Perfect information is NEVER available. So, now we have to recognize that not only are there no silver bullets (i.e., easy solutions), but we probably can’t even see the targets, nor recognize the bullets.

(4) We can deduce a good method from the film. The power of iteration gets you where you want to go. If we can “run the hand twice”, like the poker pros do on tv, then we can get a Phil Colling “do over” . It certainly makes objective setting, followed by small rapid iterations of quick improvements to approach our goal in measurable steps. It ignores the “Hail Mary” pass of breakthrough discoveries method.

(5) It certain argues persuasively that we need to focus on values and process which maximize our ability to make good decisions.

And, it made me laugh.


MONEY: “Cheap will” scam

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

I’m the administrator of an estate. Lucky me! So I went and had the will admitted to probate. The clerk and I was chatting and she told me about an entertaining barely-legal scam going on in the poorer section of Middlesex County.

Nearby the clerk’s satellite office, a lawyer has a sign offering a $25 simple will. She didn’t go into details as to what constituted simple. But the scam was that wills in nj can be written with what is called a “self-affirming affidavit”.

Basically the lawyer and witness all state under oath at the time the will is made that these are their signatures and that of the person making the will. It’s not required to be a valid will. The catch is that if it’s not there than after the person dies, the witnesses have to affirm that it is their signature on the will.

Back to our 25$ will lawyer. He writes the will for $25 but doesn’t make it “self affirming”. The when the poor family tried to probate the will, for which no lawyer is needed, especially on small estates, with simple wills, they need his affidavit affirming his signature. They gotta have it.

You can guess what happens now … … right.

Yup, that signature costs them $350!

So much for a cheap will!

HE must be politically connected, because if he wasn’t, he’d be disbarred.

Makes me wish I went to law school so that when I retire I could go “compete” with him. I do wills for $25 just to meet people. Oh well! Arghh!!