GAMBLING: Betting on an RNG trend is the path to poverty

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

FROM LUDDITE:

>1.  First article…. lol

http://scoblete.casinocitytimes.com/article/trend-betting-pure-and-simple-60033

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Frank Scoblete: The simple truth about trend betting    The simple truth about trend betting    Scoblete says trend betting does not work in random games. You can’t get an edge over the house by betting for or against the trends you just saw. What happened in the past has no influence on what happens in the future.

*** end quote ***

He’s right, BUT, (and there is always a BIG butt), he doesn’t address the paradigm (the perception) that human beings always see order out of chaos. So we see trends. If UGH the caveman didn’t he was some predator’s lunch. Look at those people who say the Devil’s face in the billowing clouds at the 9/11 attack. Our wetware is hard wired to see <synonym for excrement> that may or may not be there. And the trend is your friend.

So, it’s a meme that if you’re gambling, you can’t “beat the house”. That’s why we do money management.

And, when you find an advantage, like I did when I realized the Riviera’s new loyalty ticket machines gave a slot player a small amount of additional information about the history of the machine (i.e., on a three dollar slot, a loyalty reading of 1 or 2 to go on a machine where the last play was 1 or 2 dollars MEANT that the last player went broke. Did it always pay to play that machine? No, but I’d give it two spins $6 to hit. One of the few times I made a lot of money. I’d have to call Our Girl to come down and wait for the tax papers.

Argh! I was at Comdex and had to go back to work. I got back out there three weeks later and the system had been removed.

I bet the pros realized it and used it. The casino probably lost the pro’s action because the pros would wait patiently for the tourists to “prime the pump”. Casino mistakes are few and far between. Like the Fremont’s repeat roulette number bet.

But he’s right. Betting on an RNG trend is the path to poverty. I’ll still do it in the short run (i.e., jump in the grave).

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GAMBLING: Video Lottery Terminals not emulating a physical deck of cards

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

http://robison.casinocitytimes.com/article/do-vlts-emulate-playing-with-real-decks-of-cards-60150

Do VLTs Emulate Playing with Real Decks of Cards?
14 September 2011
By John Robison

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VLTs (Video Lottery Terminals) do not emulate playing with a physical deck of cards. A central computer system tells your machine (terminal) what the result of your spin or hand will be, and your machine will do whatever it has to do to give you that result.

Strategies are useless on these video poker machines because they don’t deal from fair decks and because the outcome of your hand has already been determined. Suppose the central system has determined that you should win the value of a full house. The machine may deal you a full house. You can discard the full house and the machine may either deal you another one, or it will deal you a garbage hand and a wizard will appear and award you the value of a full house. Whatever it takes, the machine will give you the value of a full house.

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I didn’t know that!

Shocking.

Isn’t that fraud?

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GAMBLING: Learning from an IPAD slot machine game

Saturday, February 5, 2011

In gambling, there are some essential decisions — the game, the strategy, and how much you can afford to lose.

The games are pretty straight forward. Even the stuff that’s hidden, like the pay tables, are eventually “sense-able”. (You develop a feel for what they are. Even, in some case, when they change. See my post on the “battleship” game; now gone.)

In killing time with this IPAD slot machine game, i “learned” that you have to have a money management strategy.

Using the standard initial stake, it is possible to go broke in few spins. It’s also possible to score big.

BUTT (there’s always a big but) if you have no “stop point”, you’ll always “give it all back”.

Then, in real life, you have “buyer’s remorse”. In the IPAD game, you just have a data point.

I think the operative tactic is to have a “stop point”.

Like the Sultan’s Dowery, how do you know when to take the offer?

I think my new strategy will mimic a strategy I’ve seen the old lady’s use. After a big win, they will take the ticket and start with a fresh stake.

It’s the equivalent of moving your stop point up to the high water mark minus your original stake. That way, you never “give back” more than your original stake.

Comments?

p.s., I know understand WHY the old ladies take the ticket and put in a new stake. It’s a form of discipline!

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GAMBLING: Borgata changes its comp formula

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

After a recent trip to Borgata in AC, my wife earned no comp dollars. That was strange. She played her “mystery slot dollars”, “bonus slot dollars”, and “slot dollars”. Actually turned out she actually made some money. She originally thought there was something wrong with her card.

By an experiment, we demonstrated that there was nothing wrong with her card.

Just that you NOW only get comps on what you play through their machines. And, it appears to be on a greatly reduced basis.

I’m going to try and quantify just how far they have “dialed” it back.

Argh!

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GAMBLING: US Open betting

Saturday, September 4, 2010

http://tennis.fanhouse.com/2010/09/04/us-open-brawlers-given-lengthy-ban-from-tournament/

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“I don’t give a [expletive] what anyone wants! I got a lot of money on the game!” screamed Joseph Pedeville, 27, who was involved in a brawl that halted play for a brief moment on at approximately 9 p.m. ET.

*** end quote ***

Anyone notice that this filthy mouth lout just admitted to gambling on the US Open?

Now there’s some old gambler’s wisdom that says never bet on anything that talks.

Sounds like the US Open and the various flavors of the Gestaposhould be “chatting” with him.

Maybe he should testify before Congress? They could understand his language.

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FUN: Playing video poker in SSH for fun and “points”

Friday, July 9, 2010

OK, it’s dumb. Spending real money to “win” points redeemable for over-priced prizes. That being said, Frau and I compete. Loser buys lunch. And when the “kids”, some of whom are actually children, everyone can get a “prize”. Which makes Frau happier than the “kid”. And, since I want Frau happy, I burn a few brain cells to win points. Free lunch ain’t bad either as a motivator.

SO it’s five card draw poker with five wild cards.

Here’s the Paytable in “points”

Natural Royal 800
Five of Kind 500
Wild Royal 300
St Flush 150
Four of Kind 75
Full House 40
Flush 20
Straight 8
Trips spin a dumb wheel
Two pair 5
9’s or better 4

Spinner has values: 3 – 500 – 5 – 50 – 250 – 4 – 25 – 100 – 1000 – 10 – 5000 – 15

Today’s sample spinner results:

3 1
4 6
5 1
10 2
15 2
25 1
50 1
100 0
250 0
500 0
1000 0
5000 0

Hard to calculate the EV of the wheel but here’s a guess 157/14 = 11 points per spin

Need a poker probability table for 14 card suits a-2-…t-j-q-k-w

Need a strategy for the discard.

Have to beat Frau for the free lunch.

Help?

Argh!

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Note: One has to consider the first ten cards of a random deck of 56 cards.

56C10?

Anyone have fifty six fingers?

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13c1 13c1 13c1 13c1 13c1 13c1 13c1 13c1 13c1 13c1

13c1 ** 10

1 out of 56 = 0.0178571…

(56)**10 possible combinations to consider

56C10

Thinking about it. Five card poker with 4 wild cards and a draw. It’s only about the ten cards. There’s a decision. By enumeration.

56*55*54*53*52 == 51*50*49*48*47

56*55= 3 080
*54= 166 320
*53= 8 814 960
*52= 458 377 920
*51=
*50=
*49=
*48=
*47=

Clearly beyond enumeration. Outsource to India.

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GAMBLING: Becoming the Zen Master of Panny Slots, Schadenfreude, or just dumb luck

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Yesterday, I played better on a Penny. Following some of my new Zen of Penny Slots, I had an interesting experience.

A lady sat down to play next to me. She was very concerned with how I was doing. I was playing max bet max lines on a low progressive slot. Buck and a half a spin. And, was doing pretty good.

I was trying to be the Penny Zen Master and not get caught up in the “feeding frenzy” of push push push the button as fast as you can. After all I had two hours to kill and the Mac Book Air only runs for an hour on the battery. (That’s why I don’t recommend it and if I had known that I would not have bought it.) So so I was following my “timing the machine” strategy. (Three deep breaths between pushes. Being mindful of “speed kills your wallet”. Letting it count out all pay offs. “Respect the machine”. Calculate the eventually total of what ever I’d win with what I had. Setting stop limits. Being calm. Being in the moment. Being mindful)

So this lady goes to sit next to me. She bumps me hard. Puts her hand on my back to steady herself. (A real no no. Don’t touch me!) Mumbles something. Starts playing with a voucher from another machine. I could not help but notice she started with 80$. But, I was in the moment with “my own” machine. I was hitting a lot of small stuff.

And I noticed she was very interested in how I was doing. That usually is a giant turn off for me. I am, correct that — was, superstitious and had believed it brings you bad luck. Like an evil eye. Completely irrational I know. But that’s, — correct that — was, my feeling. Conflicts with my new belief — Zen of Penny Slots – Point #10 – It’s a random number generator — and I’m trying to master my emotions at the slots.

Any way, I’m not doing badly. I played off my “free” money and put in my planned C-note stake. Two spins later, I hit the free spins.

Usually I would avoid this kind of game since you have to pick in a “concentration” style bonus game. I am usually a terrible picker. So I used my “randomizing technique” of taking the top bill in my wad and using the digits on it to pick. (Hey, the casino has a random number generator; why can’t I? I probably should print a card of random digits from 0 to 9 at home. I’m not sure those bill digits are that random.) In this case it was my innermost twenty. Good old Andy Jackson. So I plunk out the numbers and sure enough I get top number of spins and top multiplier with a wild card for five additional spins. Now this machine is imho notoriously stingy in the bonus round. But I am the aspiring Zen Master of Penny Slots. And it’s just a random number generator. Any way, bout half way through my free spins, it hits big. 70$ or so.

And, the lady next to me is going nuts. She stops playing and starts watching me.

When I notice this, my machine stops hitting and the bonus round ends. Up about 90$. Normally I’d be pissed and move on. But not the new ZMoPS. I just calmly sit there as it pays off. She says to me: “How did you get so much?” DUH. Now usually I’d be all in a snit. Say something real nasty, but I’m now the new ZMoPS. So I reply: “Just dumb luck. Besides you shouldn’t be too concerned with what I win. You need to win.”

She obviously didn’t like that answer.

So she resumed playing and watching. Her husband sits down and she laments on her fate of a “bad machine”. And, tells him I keep winning and winning. With a thick Russian accent. She starts playing again. Stupidly imho. She’s tells hubby: that she’s varying her stake to bring out the luck. In a loud voice for everyone and presumably the machine or “god of the machines to hear”. I feel like yelling at her: “No, Grasshopper, that leads to the dark side.” I really do wish her the best. Don’t you know she hits the bonus, picks max spins, with max multiplier, with 5 extra, … … with a minimum 30¢ bet.

Argh!

She goes nuts. Meantime, she focuses back on me. I’m still waiting for it to count out my win. But she doesn’t know that so she thinks I’ve hit again. Starts muttering under her breath and yelling at the husband. To which he says: “Lets go eat.” She says something. He walks away. She’s going nuts.

Any way I continue to play with a new stop point set of 150$. I hit some more. Get the bonus a few times. Use different bills. Nothing big. My stop keeps edging up to to two hundred. She goes nuts, eventually puts more money in, and finally busts out down about 300$ by my eye.

So naturally, without her to distract the “god of the machines” giving her bad luck, that fellow turns his attention on me. I start bouncing in and around the 210 to 225 range. At 230, my stop would move to 210. Without her to draw away the bad luck, I’m fated. Can’t seem to get up to 230. Eventually the machine “turns cold” and I hit just under 200$. 199.12.

And like the ZMoPS I am, I cash out.

Thanking the Universe for a nice hour and ten minutes of fun. It was “fun”. Go to the cage and throw in 88 cents and get two nice c-notes for my trouble.

Split with the old lady. Played a long time on her card for comps. And I can come another day.

I didn’t ever indulge in schadenfreude at my “companion’s” loss. But it did teach me that I’m on the right path to control my losses at the casino. Now if I can just find another loser to distract the “god of the machines” and draw away the bad luck.

Just kidding.

It really is just a random number generator. You can’t anthropomorphize it.

Or can you?

Argh!

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