GOLDBUG: Gold price predictions

From: reinke
Date: August 20, 2010 11:15:10 PM EDT
To:
Cc:
Subject: Re: CNNMoney – Gold is glittering again. But why?

I can give you my opinion why gold is “glittering”.

  • Tax law will change with respect to gold purchases on 1/1/2011
  • Taxes are going up dramatically in 2011; that will kill the economy. Look for 15-20% unemployment. (P.S., I think they are lying through their teeth about the unemployment rate. If you look at the unemployed, underemployed, discouraged — and even ignore the disgruntled, left the workforce, women becoming pregnant, “frozen in place” workers — I thin the current rate is in the 20’s NOW.)
  • Taxes are going to impact the profitable small businesses and kill the unprofitable or marginal ones in 2011.
  • Obamacare has frozen employers; they don’t know how much benefits are going to cost in 2011. (Insurance companies have jumped the gun and are preemptively raising rates. Small companies are figuring how to slim down under the size bar. Big companies, like ATT and Verizon, have put disclaimers in their financial reports about the benefit costs. Verizon is actually considering DROPPING benefits and pay the fine on the theory that it’s cheaper. I’m hearing rumors that large enterprises are considering how to reorganize their business units so that they would slip in under the bar. Think Comcast of South Brunswick with out sourcing contracts for all sorts of stuff and it’s a wholly owned by the stockholders who also own Comcast of North Brunswick, Comcast of Mt Holly, etc etc. Think Baby Bells and that’s the model. All to get under the size requirements.
  • Inflation is right now being artificially suppressed by the Federal Reserve printing press and they’re buying Treasury long bonds. At some point, this is going through the roof. (I’d suggest that 5-10% of EVERYONE’S portfolio should be in silver bullion coins kept in one’s basement.)

My prediction is: it depends totally on the 2010 election.

  • If it looks like the D’s are swept, things will continue in a Japanese style lost decades.
  • If it looks like the D’s are NOT going to be convincingly swept, this is going to get very ugly very fast.

Remember that the Great Depression was triggered by Smoot Hawley being passed and signed into law, it wasn’t due to go into effect for months. Now, the speed of dikw (i.e., data, information, knowledge, wisdom) flow is such that as soon as the “tipping point” is reached, the blood bath will ensue. It’ll make ’29 look tame.

In the hyperinflation scenario, I’d expect real interest rates to be double the Carter years’ 21%. I’d expect oil to be priced in gold rather quickly (i.e., remember it’s Sadam’s golden dinar exchange for Iraqi oil that got him in the USA dog house.) I’d expect food prices to quickly go up 50%. Business would lock up; Gooferment would be stalled.

The lack of funds to spend would quickly result in:

  • End of the Fed; replaced by some type of commodity money
  • Default on Gooferment debt; States’ debts; Social Security; Medicare; Medicaid
  • End of the drug war and begin to tax it.
  • End of the foreign military adventures and bring the troops home.
  • End of the “public education” of Dewey, Mann, and the teachers’ unions.

Any economic restart would probably be led by the oil producing states: alaska, texas, pennsylvania. And the breadbasket states: Kansas, California, Florida, Nebraska. To restart: Taxes would have to go down. Obamacare nuked. Flat or near flat tariffs and excise taxes. Corporate taxes to zero. Capital gains taxes to zero.

If it has to go worst case (i.e., the Gooferment doesn’t slim down to save itself in time), you might see secession. (Hey, worked for the USSR!) I’d look for Texas, Alaska, and Vermont to be first out. Followed quickly by: Hawaii; Montana / Idaho aka Jeffersonia; New Hampshire / Maine; and South Carolina. It would be politically very ugly. What does the District of Corruption do? Roll tanks into the secession states? Remember the American Revolution was fought by the 10% hot heads, where a third supported them, a third hated them staying loyal to England, and the other third could not have cared less.

Very ugly.

I predict in scenario #1 — D’s swept, gold goes to 2k by June of 2011 and in scenario #2 — D’s not swept, gold goes to 2k before the end of 2010.

Then, a similar “cliff” appears with the 2014 presidential. As long as the markets perceive BHO44 as a one termer, we get the calm lost decade scenario. If a reasonable R takes the lead — Ron Paul like fellow, calm. Even if there was a reasonable D, (although I can’t think of one who fill the bill), calm. HOWEVER, if it looks like BHO44 might be reelected, or Hillary, or any of the wackaloons, it’s “Katie Bar The Door” time again. Look for the markets to crash big time, as folks try and hit the exits at the same time.

In the calm lost decade scenario, I’d predict that gold would be at 3500$ in December of 2014. In the BHO44 reelected or any wackloon election, the “gold bugs” would be right and a 5000$ gold price would be well within reason. If you could buy ANY gold with dollars. (Think German WW1 hyperinflation or Zimbabwe!)

So, now you have my reasoning about gold. IMHO nothing but upside.

I’d try and be a little like a Mormon or the Amish. Beans, bandaids, and bullets. A year’s worth of food, sufficient medical supplies to minimize the trips to the drug store which won’t be open, and sufficient firepower to keep your beans. I’d put 10% of my capital in silver bullion 1 ounce rounds in a “basement”. And, watch very carefully how the winds blow.

imho,
tin foil hat fjohn

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On Aug 20, 2010, at 6:48 PM, XXXXXX wrote:

Sent from XXXXXX’s mobile device from http://money.cnn.com

Gold is glittering again. But why?

Night, night. Sleep tight. Don’t let the gold bugs bite.

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Gold prices have come roaring back in the past few weeks and are once again getting close to hitting a new all-time high. Prices were down a bit Friday. But at about $1,230 an ounce, they are still up more than 5% in the past few weeks.

The yellow precious metal rose to an intra-day peak of about $1,265 an ounce back in mid-June — the height of the fears about the sovereign debt crisis facing Europe’s PIIGS.

So why is gold on the rise again? The move is a bit curious since gold is often viewed as a classic hedge against inflation because it’s a tangible asset, unlike a paper currency. But many market experts and economists seem to be more worried about deflation than inflation.

Still, gold prices aren’t always tied to inflation expectations. The price of gold often spikes at times of fear. And with more and more concerns about how the economic recovery in the United States is losing steam, investor nervousness appears to be the most likely reason for gold’s recent move higher.

“It’s the mirror image of what’s going on with stocks. The only thing that we’re certain of is uncertainty and gold benefits from that,” said Richard Ross, global technical strategist with Auerbach Grayson, a broker dealer in New York.

Gold is undoubtedly a momentum play. With compelling reasons to avoid stocks, fears that the Treasury market may be a bubble, and concerns about both the state of the dollar and euro, gold could keep climbing.

Brian Hicks, co-manager of the U.S. Global Investors Global Resources fund in San Antonio, said gold could hit $1,300 by the end of the year and $1,500 sometime in 2011.

Hicks said that even though it may seem counterintuitive for gold to do well when people are worried about deflation, he thinks that some longer-term investors are still concerned about the potential for inflation at some point down the road. And that could push gold higher.

“Gold has been resilient in the face of a lot of discussion about deflation. But people are also discussing what the possible cure for deflation will be,” Hicks said. “That could be an expansion of government deficits and excessive printing of money. That would debase the dollar and fuel eventual fears of inflation.”

Keith Springer, president of Capital Financial Advisory Services, in Sacramento, Calif., agreed. He said gold could spike to between $1,400 and $1,500 next year.

“Gold is acting like a third currency, a crisis currency. Right now, you can buy it for deflation or inflation fears,” he said.

But the recent gold rush may not be all about economic worries.

Ross said the run-up may also have been sparked by the fact that several well-known hedge fund managers, including John Paulson, Eric Mindich of Eton Capital, George Soros and David Einhorn, have disclosed investments in various gold-related assets, such as miners and exchange-traded funds tied to gold bullion.

“There’s a dream team of investors that appear to be backing gold,” Ross said.

But Ross warned that following the lead of the so-called smart money is risky. For one, it’s tough to know for certain how big a hedge fund’s positions are in gold since many funds often make quick moves in and out of investments.

Many hedge funds may also be making bets on both the long and short side of an asset. So it may be a mistake to look at a fund’s holdings and conclude that a manager is 100% bullish on gold.

Sure, gold may have momentum on its side for now.

“Investors are attracted to things that are working. An object in motion tends to stay in motion,” Ross said.

But investors in Internet stocks, real estate and oil have all learned the hard way that this is true for both directions. Springer noted that once the trend reverses, as he believes it inevitably will, gold could crash hard.

“It’s going to take a while but once the financial crisis is over, there will be no reason to own gold,” he said.

Reader comment of the week Merger activity is starting to heat up again, a trend I wrote about on Tuesday. I noted that the increase in deal making could be a bullish sign from corporations about the economy. But not everyone agreed that merger mania is a good thing.

“In my experience, mergers were really bad for jobs, but made the financial reports look great, even if the companies were totally inefficient and wasteful,” wrote Brad Fox. “Many times I have seen corporations brag about huge revenue increases, only to find out the growth was the result of mergers, not true growth. Magic with numbers.”

- The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Paul R. La Monica. Other than Time Warner, the parent of CNNMoney.com, La Monica does not own positions in any individual stocks.

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