INTERESTING: Probability lessons for weighing the odds  

From The Times
January 5, 2009
Probability lessons may teach children how to weigh life’s odds and be winners
Professor wants ‘risk literacy’ on the curriculum Risk literacy could be taught as part of maths, science, or civics and personal and social education
Mark Henderson, Science Editor

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Professor Spiegelhalter’s four rules of risk, which he says everyone should know

* Stuff happens We cannot predict exactly how every precise event will turn out, but we can often predict the overall pattern of events surprisingly well

* Compare like with like If you want to show that speed cameras reduce road traffic accident rates, don’t just put them in places that have just had a run of accidents

* What am I not being told? This person may well have got better after she took this wonder treatment, but how many other people’s stories are not being featured?

* Twice not-very-much is still not very much Increasing a tiny risk may not be so important: almost everything interesting might help and it might also harm. The trick is working out the balance for you

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